Nate Silver is a statistician, writer, and founder of The New York Times political blog FiveThirtyEight.com. Silver also developed PECOTA, a system for forecasting baseball performance that was bought by Baseball Prospectus. He was named one of the world’s 100 Most Influential People by Time magazine. He lives in Brooklyn, New York.
发表于2024-11-24
The Signal and the Noise 2024 pdf epub mobi 电子书
如果有人在市场上竭力向你推销一款你完全不了解的产品,你就该想到他们在向你推销一个柠檬了。乔治·阿克尔洛夫凭借对信息不对称市场的研究获得了2001年诺贝尔经济学奖。你在生活当中常常会陷入各种不同的柠檬市场中。比如有人会突然问你"你听说过安利吗?" 安利的所有产品构...
评分“狐狸知道许多事情,刺猬却知道一件大事”。以赛亚·伯林在古希腊诗歌的影响下写下了著名的文章《刺猬与狐狸》。在这篇文章中,伯林区分了两类知识分子:刺猬用一个观点统摄对世界的认识,另一类狐狸,则承认种种无法统一的经验,拒绝仅仅一个观点。这个经典的比喻影响了很多...
评分Nate Silver如今俨然美国权威的政治观察分析家。这位纽约时报(New York Times)广受关注的政治选举预测分析博客FiveThirtyEight 的作者,准确预测了2012美国总统大选所有50个州的结果,超越了自己在2008年总统大选中49个州结果预测正确的记录。但是如果Silver也出错了呢?恐怕...
评分“狐狸知道许多事情,刺猬却知道一件大事”。以赛亚·伯林在古希腊诗歌的影响下写下了著名的文章《刺猬与狐狸》。在这篇文章中,伯林区分了两类知识分子:刺猬用一个观点统摄对世界的认识,另一类狐狸,则承认种种无法统一的经验,拒绝仅仅一个观点。这个经典的比喻影响了很多...
评分书中作者提到了几条预测需要遵守的原则。 原则一:用概率的方法思考问题。当我们回顾历史时,事物的发展变化似乎都是受一定的规律控制的,是必然的;但实际上,事物的发展都是路径依赖的,偶然性和随机性的影响很大,微小的条件变化就会导致结果的极大不同;因此,当我们面对...
图书标签: 统计 预测 大数据 思维 数学 NateSilver 经济 行为经济学
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century."
—Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.com, where Silver is one of the nation’s most influential political forecasters.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
前醍醐灌顶,后狂打酱油。又一部虎头蛇尾之典范。但是观点太有意义了。
评分第一章第一个表就错了。。于是已经不想再往下看了。。// 略嫌片儿汤,以后豆瓣评分50人以上且8.0以下的流行畅销书都不要看了
评分非常有意思的一本科普forecasting和bayesian的小书。一个行之有效的统计预测模型,需要有data和systematic theories支持。虽然很多人都在讲大数据时代correlation更重要,但弄清causality毫无疑问地会提高model performance,比方说天气预告 VS 地震预测。书里散落了很多令人眼前一亮的观点。
评分结尾有点弱,但前边部分非常好
评分非常有意思的一本科普forecasting和bayesian的小书。一个行之有效的统计预测模型,需要有data和systematic theories支持。虽然很多人都在讲大数据时代correlation更重要,但弄清causality毫无疑问地会提高model performance,比方说天气预告 VS 地震预测。书里散落了很多令人眼前一亮的观点。
The Signal and the Noise 2024 pdf epub mobi 电子书