Nate Silver is a statistician, writer, and founder of The New York Times political blog FiveThirtyEight.com. Silver also developed PECOTA, a system for forecasting baseball performance that was bought by Baseball Prospectus. He was named one of the world’s 100 Most Influential People by Time magazine. He lives in Brooklyn, New York.
发表于2024-11-02
The Signal and the Noise 2024 pdf epub mobi 电子书
如果有人在市场上竭力向你推销一款你完全不了解的产品,你就该想到他们在向你推销一个柠檬了。乔治·阿克尔洛夫凭借对信息不对称市场的研究获得了2001年诺贝尔经济学奖。你在生活当中常常会陷入各种不同的柠檬市场中。比如有人会突然问你"你听说过安利吗?" 安利的所有产品构...
评分题记:是化作天鹅之神,还是死成黑天鹅,那只天鹅,都会给动荡的世界,一翅疑惑的又摇摇欲坠的影像。 《信号与噪声》告诉我们是喜欢活在一个经验的世界,但真正发生的,多于我们的经验。人类无奈的发现有很多事件超越了我们的预测能力,比如棒球比赛,气候,地震,飓风,流行...
评分“大数据时代”应该算得上新近的热词了,我们每个人都在讨论大数据、讨论云计算,但问题是,为什么网络的戾气还是这么重呢?《信号与噪声》给出的答案是,信息太多了。 作为反乌托邦小说,《美丽新世界》和《一九八四》一直被当做信息处理的两种相反的手段,前者是信息泛滥以至...
评分如果有人在市场上竭力向你推销一款你完全不了解的产品,你就该想到他们在向你推销一个柠檬了。乔治·阿克尔洛夫凭借对信息不对称市场的研究获得了2001年诺贝尔经济学奖。你在生活当中常常会陷入各种不同的柠檬市场中。比如有人会突然问你"你听说过安利吗?" 安利的所有产品构...
评分Nate Silver如今俨然美国权威的政治观察分析家。这位纽约时报(New York Times)广受关注的政治选举预测分析博客FiveThirtyEight 的作者,准确预测了2012美国总统大选所有50个州的结果,超越了自己在2008年总统大选中49个州结果预测正确的记录。但是如果Silver也出错了呢?恐怕...
图书标签: 统计 预测 大数据 思维 数学 NateSilver 经济 行为经济学
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century."
—Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.com, where Silver is one of the nation’s most influential political forecasters.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
结尾有点弱,但前边部分非常好
评分逻辑vs现象。尽可能摆脱ego, 多元,think probabilistically, 越客观越接近真相。
评分No real insights and very boring, the US house market crash case makes me believe the author knows little on what he's talking about
评分其实一般了
评分逻辑vs现象。尽可能摆脱ego, 多元,think probabilistically, 越客观越接近真相。
The Signal and the Noise 2024 pdf epub mobi 电子书