Nassim Nicholas Taleb spent two decades as a risk taker before becoming a full-time essayist and scholar focusing on practical and philosophical problems with chance, luck, and probability. His focus in on how different systems handle disorder.
He now spends most of his time in the intense seclusion of his study, or as a flâneur meditating in cafés. In addition to his life as a trader he spend several years as an academic researcher ( Distinguished Professor at New York University's School of Engineering, Dean's Professor at U. Mass Amherst).
He is the author of the Incerto (latin for uncertainty), accessible in any order (Antifragile, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, and Fooled by Randomness) plus a freely available technical version, Silent Risk. Taleb has also published close to 55 academic and scholarly papers as a backup, technical footnotes to the Incerto in topics ranging from Statistical Physics to International affairs. The Incerto has more than 150 translations in 39 languages.
Taleb believes that prizes, honorary degrees, awards, and ceremonialism debase knowledge by turning it into a spectator sport.
""Imagine someone with the erudition of Pico de la Mirandola, the skepticism of Montaigne, solid mathematical training, a restless globetrotter, polyglot, enjoyer of fine wines, specialist of financial derivatives, irrepressible reader, and irascible to the point of readily slapping a disciple." La Tribune (Paris)
A giant of Mediterranean thought ... Now the hottest thinker in the world", London Times
"The most prophetic voice of all" GQ
Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.
Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill.
This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives.
The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.
However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance.
Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.
Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time
A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year
發表於2025-02-25
Fooled by Randomness 2025 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載
這本書可以帶來清醒。 縱觀全書,我覺得主要講的就是人往往被隨機性所愚弄,根據以往或現在發生的事實歸納推斷齣結論,並以為這是很正確的,其實卻忽略瞭那概率中未發生的事實,而隨著時間的推移,那些事實很可能就發生瞭。對於交易員來說,就是相信自己歸納總結齣來的方法已經...
評分關於數字與概率 我們遲早會瞭解概率終究是個用來看問題的定性手法,它是懷疑之子。數學主要是用來作為冥思的工具,而不是當作計算工具使用。真正的隨機現象看起來並不隨機。 討論概率問題時我不建議會計師參加。對會計師來說,數字就是數字。如果他對概率有興趣,早就投入...
評分 評分 評分圖書標籤: 金融 思維 經濟 投資 randomness 思維工具 finance economics
Thought-provoking ideas on probability and human dealings with randomness. In the end the key message could be: (a) Do not harbour any supersititious confidence/pure supersition about the capability of yourself or that of any extremely successful people, and (b) hope for the best, work to the hardest and prepare for the worst.
評分Thought-provoking ideas on probability and human dealings with randomness. In the end the key message could be: (a) Do not harbour any supersititious confidence/pure supersition about the capability of yourself or that of any extremely successful people, and (b) hope for the best, work to the hardest and prepare for the worst.
評分真是讓人玩味無窮的一本書,而且結尾還不忘鼓勵對於概率翻雲覆雨手毫無還擊之力的人。我們什麼都不能改變,唯一能改變的隻有我們的行為,那麼請努力作一個有骨氣的人
評分第一本接觸到的這種類型的書!!! 引人深思!
評分skim瞭一下。。不如去讀王小波
Fooled by Randomness 2025 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載