ANDREW SCOBELL is Associate Research Professor at the Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, and Adjunct Professor of Political Science at Dickinson College. Born and raised in Hong Kong, he joined the Strategic Studies Institute in 1999 and is the Institute’s specialist on Asia-Pacii c security. Prior to his current position, he taught at the University of Louisville, Kentucky, and Rutgers niversity, New Jersey. Dr. Scobell is the author of China’s Use of Military Force: Beyond the Great Wall and the Long March

(Cambridge University Press, 2003), ten monographs and reports, and some twenty articles in such journals as Armed Forces and Society, Asian Survey, China Quarterly, Comparative Politics, Current History, and Political Science Quarterly. Dr. Scobell holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Columbia University.

The relationship between China and North Korea surely ranks as one of world’s strangest. While on the surface, it might not seem surprising to have a formal military alliance between two communist

neighbors that has endured more than 4 decades. After all, their armed forces fought shoulder-to-shoulder in the Korean War 50 years ago.

However, Beijing’s ties to Pyongyang have weakened considerably over time, and China now has much better and stronger relations

with the free market democracy of South Korea than it does with the totalitarian, centrally planned economy of North Korea. In many ways Pyongyang has become a Cold War relic, strategic liability, and monumental headache for Beijing. Nevertheless, the China-North Korea alliance remains formally in effect, and Beijing continues to

provide vital supplies of food and fuel to the brutal and repressive Pyongyang regime.

Since the ongoing nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula, which emerged in October 2002, the United States and other countries have pinned high hopes on Chinese efforts to moderate and reason with North Korea. Beijing’s initiative to bring Pyongyang to the table in the so-called Six-Party Talks and host them seems to substantiate

these hopes. Yet, as Dr. Andrew Scobell points out in this monograph, it would be unrealistic to raise one’s expectations over what China might accomplish vis-à-vis North Korea. Beijing plays a useful and

important role on the Korean Peninsula, but in the i nal analysis, Scobell argues that there are signii cant limitations on China’s inl uence both in terms of what actions Beijing would be prepared to take and what impact this pressure can have. If this analysis is correct, then North Korea is unlikely to mend its ways anytime soon.

The Strategic Studies Institute is pleased to offer a current analysis of this long-term relationship and its effect on the United States and the region.