Toward Rational Exuberance

出版者:Farrar, Straus and Giroux

作者:B. Mark Smith

页数:352

出版时间:2002-5-30

价格:USD 15.00

装帧:Paperback

isbn号码:9780374528508

具体描述

From Publishers Weekly

While at first glance this seems a well-written but familiar history of the United States stock market, between the colorful characters and scandals Smith deftly details the practical and historical workings of the stock market from 1901 when it was "a primitive insider's game" to the present downturn. Carefully charting how early market practices led to wider economic and political events, he demonstrates how public reaction reshaped the market over the decades. For example, a depression-era debacle, wherein Wall Street denizen Richard Whitney borrowed $27 million then declared bankruptcy, engendered the longstanding "New Deal regulatory regime." Fluid, lively prose reminiscent of John Kenneth Galbraith and Burton Malkiel renders this serious endeavor painless to read. Unlike popular histories that jump from the Crash of 1929 to the 1980s in a few pages, this measured narrative examines changes in quiet and dramatic decades alike. Also rare is the book's balanced treatment of the evolution of academic theory and professional practice. Even people in the know will learn much from Smith's simple and elegant presentation. Likewise, those who wish to learn more about the stock market will find it accessible and enjoyable. The book's sole flaw is its single perspective on controversial theories and events. While probably necessary to cover so many years in so few pages, the book lacks depth as a result. Still, it holds important insights for experts and remains a useful introduction for novices. (May)Forecast: A welcome antidote to shrill predictions of looming prosperity or disaster, this is one of the best general works on a topic of broadening interest. If it receives the favorable review attention it deserves, it could rise to the status of a classic within a few years.

Copyright 2001 Cahners Business Information, Inc.

--This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

From Booklist

Smith, an experienced stock trader, sets out to help readers understand the modern stock market and its role in today's economy by tracing its development over the past 100 years. With more than half of the U.S. population owning stock directly or indirectly, he counsels that it is important to know how the market works as the process through which businesses secure the financing that is critical to their very existence. In story form we learn about the great financiers of the early twentieth century, beginning with J. P. Morgan, and events leading up to World War I, the 1929 stock market crash, and World War II, followed by tales of each successive decade and the players who helped shape the market. The author also details the intellectual revolution of Wall Street, featuring such luminaries as Fischer Black, Myron Scholes, and Merton Miller in explaining his thesis that the modern stock market can only be understood in light of the evolutionary processes that formed it. Mary Whaley

Copyright © American Library Association. All rights reserved --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

Kirkus Reviews

"Smith is savvy . . . [His] history of the modern stock market . . .[is] exquisitely revealing and written with real polish . . ." --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

Review

"[A] provocative look at the fitful evolution of the markets." --Wayne E. Yang, The Christian Science Monitor

--This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

Book Description

To an unprecedented degree, the health of the American economy, and the financial well-being of the average American, is tied to the stock market. Toward Rational Exuberance tells the story of how the market came to be what it is today, providing an in-depth understanding of the theories that drive investor behavior, the vivid personalities who have dominated the stock market's turbulent history, and the processes by which the market has evolved to its present state -- elements essential to anyone seeking to understand the workings of the modern economy.

The stock market is big news now, influencing every aspect of the modern economy. Accepted wisdom has it that the market will provide retirement security for anyone willing to diligently save and invest.

Yet many people still alive can remember a very different time, when the stock market was little more than a primitive insider's game viewed by most Americans with skepticism and suspicion. In Toward Rational Exuberance, B. Mark Smith, a retired stock trader with nearly two decades of practical experience, tells the story of how this stunning transformation occurred. It is a fascinating story, involving colorful personalities, dramatic events, and revolutionary new ideas. In the course of the narrative, Smith traces the evolution of popular theories of stock market behavior, showing how they have become widely accepted over time and have greatly influenced the way the investing public views the market. But he also shows how some of these theories -- such as the notion that the market is often susceptible to speculative "bubbles" that will inevitably burst -- are based on faulty interpretations of market history that may lead investors to draw inaccurate conclusions about the market today.

The central thesis of Toward Rational Exuberance is that the modern stock market is the product of a dynamic evolutionary process; it is very different from what it was in the past. It cannot be measured simply by comparison with arbitrary historical standards, and its behavior cannot be predicted by extrapolating those standards into the future. It is only by understanding the process by which the modern market has been created that today's investor can begin to understand the market itself. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

作者简介

B. Mark Smith was a professional stock trader for nearly two decades, first with CS/First Boston Corporation, where he became director, then as a vice president of Goldman, Sachs & Co. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

用户评价

一本名为《Toward Rational Exuberance》的书，光是这个名字就足以让我眼前一亮，它仿佛在用一种充满智慧的宣言，挑战着我们对“狂热”的固有印象。我猜想，这本书并非简单地歌颂乐观，而是要深入剖析“理性”在其中扮演的关键角色。或许，它会引领我们审视那些驱动市场、社会乃至个人激情澎湃的因素，并一一解构其背后的逻辑，区分哪些是可持续发展的动力，哪些又是转瞬即逝的泡沫。我想象着作者可能是一位善于从历史的长河中汲取智慧的学者，他会用翔实的史料和精辟的分析，向我们展示过往那些因过度乐观而导致的失误，或是那些在挑战中凭借理性坚持最终获得成功的典范。这本书会不会提供一套全新的框架，帮助我们在复杂的现实中，学会辨别真正的机遇，而不是被虚幻的繁荣所迷惑？我更倾向于认为，它是一次关于如何“驾驭”激情的探索，而非简单地“抑制”或“放纵”。它可能会教导我们，如何在一个充满不确定性的世界里，既保持积极进取的态度，又能洞察风险，做出审慎的决策。我期待它能带给我一种豁然开朗的感觉，让我重新理解“理性”与“热情”并非对立，而是能够相辅相成，共同驱动我们走向更长远的成功。

《Toward Rational Exuberance》这个书名，如同一个充满诗意的悖论，立刻吸引了我。在我看来，它预示着一种对当前社会普遍存在的“不理性狂热”现象的反思，并试图提出一种更为健康、可持续的发展模式。我猜测，书中可能探讨了在信息爆炸、技术飞速发展的时代，人们容易陷入的非理性情绪，比如对某些新兴事物过度的追捧，或是对未来不切实际的幻想。而“理性”二字的加入，则暗示着作者并非要全盘否定积极的情绪和对未来的憧憬，而是强调在拥抱这些情绪的同时，需要保持清醒的头脑和审慎的态度。我设想，作者可能是一位在心理学、社会学或是经济学领域有独到见解的专家，他会以严谨的逻辑和丰富的案例，来论证如何在充满机遇和挑战的环境中，找到那个恰到好处的平衡点。这本书会不会提供一些实用的工具或思维方式，帮助读者识别那些可能导致“非理性繁荣”的陷阱，并学会如何规避它们？我期待它能够帮助我理解，真正的“繁荣”并非一蹴而就，而是建立在坚实的理性基础之上，是一种经得起时间考验的、有韧性的成长。它可能是一本能够启发我更深刻地思考“成功”与“幸福”的定义，并引导我以一种更为成熟和负责任的方式去追求自己目标的作品。

这本《Toward Rational Exuberance》的书名本身就充满了引人遐思的张力，似乎预示着一种既要拥抱乐观，又要保持理性的独特视角。在阅读之前，我脑海中浮现出许多可能性：或许它是一部关于经济周期的深刻洞察，探讨如何在市场繁荣时期避免盲目狂热，又在低迷时期找到复苏的理性路径？又或者，它可能是一本关于个人成长的心灵指南，教导我们在追求梦想和目标时，如何保持适度的激情，同时又不失对现实的清醒认知？我期待它能提供一套切实可行的方法论，帮助读者在不确定性日益增加的世界里，找到内心的平衡和前行的力量。我猜测作者可能是一位在金融、心理学或是哲学领域有着深厚造诣的专家，他能够将复杂的理论以通俗易懂的方式呈现，引发读者更深层次的思考。我非常好奇书中会引用哪些经典的案例或理论来支撑其观点，又是否会提出一些颠覆性的新思想。这本书的书名，仿佛一面镜子，映照出我们内心深处对美好未来的向往，同时也提醒着我们，实现这些愿景需要智慧和审慎。总而言之，我对《Toward Rational Exuberance》充满了期待，渴望在这本书中找到能够启迪我思想、指导我行动的宝贵财富。

这本《Toward Rational Exuberance》的书名，乍听之下，就带有一种非凡的洞察力。我立刻联想到，在如今这个信息爆炸、变化加速的时代，我们常常会看到一股股看似汹涌澎湃的热潮，无论是科技的炒作，还是金融市场的波动，亦或是某种社会思潮的兴起。然而，在这些“狂热”的背后，往往潜藏着不确定性和风险。这本书的书名，恰恰抓住了这一点，它似乎在呼唤一种“理性的狂热”，一种既能拥抱进步与发展，又能保持审慎与清醒的智慧。我猜想，作者可能是一位拥有深厚理论功底和丰富实践经验的思想家，他会深入浅出地分析那些驱动“狂热”的因素，并探讨如何在其中保持批判性思维，不被表面的繁荣所迷惑。这本书会不会提供一些关于如何进行风险评估、如何做出长期规划的指导？亦或者，它会从更宏观的视角，审视人类社会在发展过程中，如何避免重蹈覆辙，实现可持续的进步？我期待它能为我提供一种全新的视角，去理解和应对当前世界存在的各种复杂现象，帮助我在追求进步的同时，能够更加稳健和从容。它可能是一本能够“点醒”我，让我看到繁荣背后的真相，并指引我走向更明智的决策的书。

《Toward Rational Exuberance》这个书名，简直就是一股清流，在充斥着极端论调和片面观点的时代，它所蕴含的“理性”与“狂热”的辩证统一，立刻勾起了我的好奇心。我猜想，这本书的作者并非是那种鼓吹激进变革的先锋，也不是那种固守陈规的保守派，而是一位深谙事物发展规律的智者。他可能认为，适度的热情和积极的冲劲是推动社会进步和个人发展的必要条件，但过度的、缺乏约束的狂热，则往往是走向失控和毁灭的根源。因此，他试图在这两者之间找到一种微妙的平衡点，一种既能激发活力，又能保持稳健的路径。我期待这本书能够提供一些深刻的见解，关于如何在不确定的未来中，保持希望和乐观，同时又不失对现实的清醒认知。它或许会分析历史上那些成功的转型和发展，是如何在创新与稳健之间取得平衡的，又或许会探讨如何在个人生活中，去培养一种既有激情又有远见的思维模式。我希望这本书能让我明白，真正的“繁荣”并非是短暂的爆发，而是一种持续的、有韧性的成长，一种建立在智慧和审慎之上的前进。它可能是一本能够引导我，在复杂的世界中，找到自己独特的发展轨迹，并最终实现人生价值的指南。