作者簡介

山姆・魏爾金 Sam Wilkin

著名的地緣政治分析傢，現任全球顧問諮詢公司Willis Towers Watson的首席政治風險分析師，客戶遍及全球一百四十個國傢，主要負責發展、執行政治風險分析與管理工具及解決方案。先前他曾擔任牛津大學商學院的諮詢機構Oxford Economics的首席企業研究員，也是Aon Trade Credit的首席政治風險分析師。

畢業於芝加哥大學，獲得國際關係、經濟學學位。曾任教布朗大學華森國際與公共事務研究中心。

譯者簡介

孔思文

現任國立颱灣大學翻譯碩士學位學程助理教授，曾任紐西蘭奧剋蘭大學翻譯學助理教授。

翻譯經歷包括自由譯者、紐西蘭華語電視颱談話節目與當地晚間新聞譯者等。熱衷翻譯教學、研究與實務。

目前為颱灣翻譯學學會會員與紐西蘭翻譯協會會員。

Most of the time, politics is boring. In most countries, the Average Joe rules. Extremists of the left and right can gnash their teeth but serious politicians know they desert the centre ground at their peril. It's the iron law of electoral politics.

That is, in normal times.

What about times when the centre can't hold, when the extremists take back control and set about making their country great again?

At such moments, the best guide to the future is the past. Political chaos might be scary but it isn't all that chaotic. In fact, as risk analyst Sam Wilkin reveals in History Repeating, it has hidden rules.

Beneath the noise and confusion of history, from Lenin and Khomeini to Trump and Brexit, there are patterns. The same drama plays out again and again, with minor variations. It isn't the story you think you know. It contains surprises and profound mysteries. But once you have seen the inner logic of the past century's political disasters, you might just be ready to face the interesting times to come.