The Great Depression Ahead

出版者:Free Press

作者:Harry S. Dent

页数:400

出版时间:2009-01-06

价格:USD 27.00

装帧:Hardcover

isbn号码:9781416588986

具体描述

The first and last economic depression that you will experience in your lifetime is just ahead. The year 2009 will be the beginning of the next long-term winter season and the initial end of prosperity in almost every market, ushering in a downturn like most of us have not experienced before. Are you aware that we have seen long-term peaks in our stock market and economy very close to every 40 years due to generational spending trends: as in 1929, 1968, and next around 2009? Are you aware that oil and commodity prices have peaked nearly every 30 years, as in 1920, 1951, 1980 -- and next likely around late 2009 to mid-2010? The three massive bubbles that have been booming for the last few decades -- stocks, real estate, and commodities -- have all reached their peak and are deflating simultaneously. Bestselling author and renowned economic forecaster Harry S. Dent, Jr., has observed these trends for decades. As he first demonstrated in his bestselling The Great Boom Ahead , he has developed analytical techniques that allow him to predict the impact they will have. The Great Depression Ahead explains "The Perfect Storm" as peak oil prices collide with peaking generational spending trends by 2010, leading to a more severe downtrend for the global economy and individual investors alike. He predicts the following: • The economy appears to recover from the subprime crisis and minor recession by mid-2009 -- "the calm before the real storm." • Stock prices start to crash again between mid- and late 2009 into late 2010, and likely finally bottom around mid-2012 -- between Dow 3,800 and 7,200. • The economy enters a deeper depression between mid-2010 and early 2011, likely extending off and on into late 2012 or mid-2013. • Asian markets may bottom by late 2010, along with health care, and be the first great buy opportunities in stocks. • Gold and precious metals will appear to be a hedge at first, but will ultimately collapse as well after mid- to late 2010. • A first major stock rally, likely between mid-2012 and mid-2017, will be followed by a final setdback around late 2019/early 2020. • The next broad-based global bull market will be from 2020-2023 into 2035-2036. Conventional investment wisdom will no longer apply, and investors on every level -- from billion-dollar firms to the individual trader -- must drastically reevaluate their policies in order to survive. But despite the dire news and dark predictions, there are real opportunities to come from the greatest fire sale on financial assets since the early 1930s. Dent outlines the critical issues that will face our government and other major institutions, offering long- and short-term tactics for weathering the storm. He offers recommendations that will allow families, businesses, investors, and individuals to manage their assets correctly and come out on top. With the right knowledge and preparation, you can take advantage of new wealth opportunities rather than get caught in a downward spiral. Your life is about to change for reasons outside of your control. You can't change the direction of the winds, but you can reset your sails!

用户评价

这本书的文笔，用“犀利”来形容或许都不够贴切，它更像是一把精确的外科手术刀，毫不留情地剖开了那个年代经济结构中所有脆弱的环节。作者对于金融术语和市场运作的理解，展现出令人印象深刻的专业深度，然而，他高明之处在于，能够将这些复杂的概念，用一种近乎诗意的、却又逻辑严密的语言阐述出来。我尤其欣赏作者在探讨政策失误时所采取的审慎态度，他没有简单地将责任推给某个人或某一个机构，而是深入挖掘了制度性的缺陷和思想上的盲区。书中对信贷泡沫的形成过程，以及随后引发的连锁反应的分析，清晰得如同教科书上的插图，但又充满了历史的张力。读完相关章节后，我对现代金融体系的脆弱性有了全新的认识，这不再是抽象的新闻报道，而是通过历史案例生动展现的警示录。这种将深奥的经济学理论与波澜壮阔的社会变革紧密结合的能力，使得这本书超越了一般的历史回忆录，更像是一部具有预见性的社会病理学分析报告。

这本书给我最大的感受，是关于“韧性”的反思，这并非指物质上的恢复速度，而是指人类精神层面的弹性极限。作者在描述那些流离失所的农民和工厂工人时，并没有将他们塑造成被动的受害者符号。相反，通过对他们日常决策的刻画，我们看到了在极端压力下，人类为了生存而展现出的近乎本能的创新和适应能力。比如，书中记录了许多非正式的互助网络如何悄然兴起，取代了失效的正式保障体系；农民们为了不被银行没收土地，采取了怎样近乎滑稽却又充满智慧的拖延战术。这种对底层民众能动性的肯定，极大地提升了阅读体验，它提醒我们，历史的洪流并非完全由上层的指令决定。这种从下而上的视角，补充了传统历史叙事中常常缺失的维度。它让我思考，在今日社会，当面临结构性风险时，我们自身是否也潜藏着这种未被发掘的“非正式生存智慧”。这种对人性深度的探索，让这本书拥有了跨越时代的启示意义。

这本书的叙事节奏简直让人欲罢不能，作者仿佛是一位技艺高超的编织者，将复杂的人物命运和宏大的历史背景交织在一起，织就了一幅既华丽又沉重的时代画卷。故事开篇便将我迅速拉入了一个充满不确定性的世界，那种从繁荣骤然跌落的失重感，即便隔着文字，我也能清晰地感受到角色的恐慌与无助。特别是对个体家庭如何在经济风暴中挣扎求生的描绘，细节之丰富，简直令人叹为观止。作者没有采取那种冷冰冰的学术分析视角，而是通过大量细腻的生活场景，比如面包店排起的长队、失业者在街头茫然的眼神，甚至是仅剩的一点点食物如何被小心翼翼地分配，将那个时代的艰辛具象化了。阅读过程中，我多次停下来，不是因为不理解，而是因为那些画面感太强，需要时间去消化那种深入骨髓的萧条。更难能可贵的是，在描绘绝望的同时，作者也巧妙地穿插了人性的光辉——邻里间的互相扶持，对未来微弱的希望，这些点点星光，让整部作品没有沉溺于黑暗，而是保持了一种坚韧的力量。这种叙事技巧，让读者在体验历史厚重感的同时，也获得了情感上的共鸣和某种超越性的启示。

我必须承认，这本书的某些章节，阅读起来需要极大的精神集中力，因为它并非那种提供即时满足感的娱乐读物。作者似乎有意地挑战读者的耐心，通过插入大量的原始文件摘录和冗长的官方会议记录，构建了一个坚不可摧的证据链。起初，我有些不适应这种略显“干燥”的文本处理方式，感觉像是置身于一个巨大的历史档案室中。但随着深入，我开始体会到这种“枯燥”背后的巨大价值——它赋予了作者的论点以无可辩驳的权威性。他不是在讲述一个故事，而是在重建一个被时间尘封的真相。特别是对政府内部决策过程的还原，那些充满妥协、误判和权力斗争的片段，展现出决策者在面对前所未有的危机时，人类判断力的局限性。这本书要求读者做一个主动的参与者，去梳理那些散落在历史细节中的线索，这是一种智力上的高强度锻炼。最终，这种细致入微的考据工作，反而让最终得出的结论更具震撼力，因为它不是凭空猜测，而是从历史的骨骼中抽丝剥茧得出的必然性。

从结构布局上来看，这本书的处理手法非常大胆且极具现代感，它摒弃了传统的线性时间叙事，而是采用了多重视角和主题式的跳跃。作者仿佛在用一台高性能的摄像机，在不同的时间点和地理位置之间快速切换，时而聚焦于华尔街的空头交易，时而又转到中西部农场的沙尘暴，这种快速的场景转换，完美地模拟了危机爆发时的那种信息过载和认知混乱感。不同章节之间看似松散的联系，实则通过某些核心的经济指标或重复出现的人物剪影紧密相连，需要读者主动去建立这些隐形的桥梁。这种非线性的叙事策略，成功地避免了对单一事件的过度渲染，而是强调了危机的系统性和共振性——即一个地方的金融恐慌如何迅速传染到另一个看似无关的农业社区。这种宏观的、网状的结构分析，让读者体验到了一种身处复杂系统核心的眩晕感，深刻理解了在那样一个相互依存的世界里，局部的小失误如何能引发全球性的灾难。这种结构上的创新，让严肃的历史解读变得耳目一新。

太宏观，太多预测

太宏观，太多预测

太宏观，太多预测

太宏观，太多预测

太宏观，太多预测