Preface xv
Part I: Introduction
Chapter 1: Economic Growth and Economic Development: The Questions 3
1.1 Cross-Country Income Differences 3
1.2 Income and Welfare 7
1.3 Economic Growth and Income Differences 9
1.4 Origins of Today’s Income Differences and World Economic Growth 11
1.5 Conditional Convergence 15
1.6 Correlates of Economic Growth 18
1.7 From Correlates to Fundamental Causes 19
1.8 The Agenda 21
1.9 References and Literature 23
Chapter 2: The Solow Growth Model 26
2.1 The Economic Environment of the Basic Solow Model 27
2.2 The Solow Model in Discrete Time 34
2.3 Transitional Dynamics in the Discrete-Time Solow Model 43
2.4 The Solow Model in Continuous Time 47
2.5 Transitional Dynamics in the Continuous-Time Solow Model 51
2.6 A First Look at Sustained Growth 55
2.7 Solow Model with Technological Progress 56
2.8 Comparative Dynamics 67
2.9 Taking Stock 68
2.10 References and Literature 69
2.11 Exercises 71
Chapter 3: The SolowModel and the Data 77
3.1 Growth Accounting 77
3.2 The Solow Model and Regression Analyses 80
3.3 The Solow Model with Human Capital 85
3.4 Solow Model and Cross-Country Income Differences: Regression Analyses 90
3.5 Calibrating Productivity Differences 96
3.6 Estimating Productivity Differences 100
3.7 Taking Stock 105
3.8 References and Literature 106
3.9 Exercises 107
Chapter 4: Fundamental Determinants of Differences in Economic Performance 109
4.1 Proximate versus Fundamental Causes 109
4.2 Economies of Scale, Population, Technology, and World Growth 112
4.3 The Four Fundamental Causes 114
4.4 The Effect of Institutions on Economic Growth 123
4.5 What Types of Institutions? 136
4.6 Disease and Development 137
4.7 Political Economy of Institutions: First Thoughts 140
4.8 Taking Stock 140
4.9 References and Literature 141
4.10 Exercises 143
Part II: Toward Neoclassical Growth
Chapter 5: Foundations of Neoclassical Growth 147
5.1 Preliminaries 147
5.2 The Representative Household 149
5.3 Infinite Planning Horizon 156
5.4 The Representative Firm 158
5.5 Problem Formulation 160
5.6 Welfare Theorems 161
5.7 Proof of the Second Welfare Theorem (Theorem 5.7) * 168
5.8 Sequential Trading 171
5.9 Optimal Growth 174
5.10 Taking Stock 176
5.11 References and Literature 176
5.12 Exercises 178
Chapter 6: Infinite-Horizon Optimization and Dynamic Programming 182
6.1 Discrete-Time Infinite-Horizon Optimization 182
6.2 Stationary Dynamic Programming 185
6.3 Stationary Dynamic Programming Theorems 187
6.4 The Contraction Mapping Theorem and Applications * 190
6.5 Proofs of the Main Dynamic Programming Theorems * 194
6.6 Applications of Stationary Dynamic Programming 201
6.7 Nonstationary Infinite-Horizon Optimization 211
6.8 Optimal Growth in Discrete Time 215
6.9 Competitive Equilibrium Growth 219
6.10 Computation 221
6.11 Taking Stock 221
6.12 References and Literature 222
6.13 Exercises 223
Chapter 7: An Introduction to the Theory of Optimal Control 227
7.1 Variational Arguments 228
7.2 The Maximum Principle: A First Look 235
7.3 Infinite-Horizon Optimal Control 240
7.4 More on Transversality Conditions 250
7.5 Discounted Infinite-Horizon Optimal Control 253
7.6 Existence of Solutions, Concavity, and Differentiability * 259
7.7 A First Look at Optimal Growth in Continuous Time 268
7.8 The q-Theory of Investment and Saddle-Path Stability 269
7.9 Taking Stock 274
7.10 References and Literature 275
7.11 Exercises 278
Part III: Neoclassical Growth
Chapter 8: The Neoclassical Growth Model 287
8.1 Preferences, Technology, and Demographics 287
8.2 Characterization of Equilibrium 293
8.3 Optimal Growth 298
8.4 Steady-State Equilibrium 300
8.5 Transitional Dynamics and Uniqueness of Equilibrium 302
8.6 Neoclassical Growth in Discrete Time 305
8.7 Technological Change and the Canonical Neoclassical Model 306
8.8 The Role of Policy 312
8.9 Comparative Dynamics 313
8.10 A Quantitative Evaluation 315
8.11 Extensions 317
8.12 Taking Stock 317
8.13 References and Literature 318
8.14 Exercises 319
Chapter 9: Growth with Overlapping Generations 327
9.1 Problems of Infinity 328
9.2 The Baseline Overlapping Generations Model 329
9.3 The Canonical Overlapping Generations Model 335
9.4 Overaccumulation and Pareto Optimality of Competitive Equilibrium in the Overlapping Generations Model 336
9.5 Role of Social Security in Capital Accumulation 339
9.6 Overlapping Generations with Impure Altruism 342
9.7 Overlapping Generations with Perpetual Youth 345
9.8 Overlapping Generations in Continuous Time 348
9.9 Taking Stock 353
9.10 References and Literature 354
9.11 Exercises 355
Chapter 10: Human Capital and Economic Growth 359
10.1 A Simple Separation Theorem 359
10.2 Schooling Investments and Returns to Education 361
10.3 The Ben-Porath Model 363
10.4 Neoclassical Growth with Physical and Human Capital 367
10.5 Capital-Skill Complementarity in an Overlapping Generations Model 371
10.6 Physical and Human Capital with Imperfect Labor Markets 374
10.7 Human Capital Externalities 379
10.8 The Nelson-Phelps Model of Human Capital 380
10.9 Taking Stock 382
10.10 References and Literature 384
10.11 Exercises 384
Chapter 11: First-Generation Models of Endogenous Growth 387
11.1 The AK Model Revisited 388
11.2 The AK Model with Physical and Human Capital 393
11.3 The Two-Sector AK Model 395
11.4 Growth with Externalities 398
11.5 Taking Stock 402
11.6 References and Literature 404
11.7 Exercises 404
Part IV: Endogenous Technological Change
Chapter 12: Modeling Technological Change 411
12.1 Different Conceptions of Technology 411
12.2 Science and Profits 414
12.3 The Value of Innovation in Partial Equilibrium 416
12.4 The Dixit-Stiglitz Model and Aggregate Demand Externalities 422
12.5 Individual R&D Uncertainty and the Stock Market 428
12.6 Taking Stock 429
12.7 References and Literature 430
12.8 Exercises 431
Chapter 13: Expanding VarietyModels 433
13.1 The Lab-Equipment Model of Growth with Input Varieties 433
13.2 Growth with Knowledge Spillovers 444
13.3 Growth without Scale Effects 446
13.4 Growth with Expanding Product Varieties 448
13.5 Taking Stock 452
13.6 References and Literature 453
13.7 Exercises 453
Chapter 14: Models of Schumpeterian Growth 458
14.1 A Baseline Model of Schumpeterian Growth 459
14.2 A One-Sector Schumpeterian Growth Model 468
14.3 Innovation by Incumbents and Entrants 472
14.4 Step-by-Step Innovations * 479
14.5 Taking Stock 489
14.6 References and Literature 490
14.7 Exercises 491
Chapter 15: Directed Technological Change 497
15.1 Importance of Biased Technological Change 498
15.2 Basics and Definitions 500
15.3 Baseline Model of Directed Technological Change 503
15.4 Directed Technological Change with Knowledge Spillovers 514
15.5 Directed Technological Change without Scale Effects 518
15.6 Endogenous Labor-Augmenting Technological Change 519
15.7 Generalizations and Other Applications 522
15.8 An Alternative Approach to Labor-Augmenting Technological Change* 523
15.9 Taking Stock 526
15.10 References and Literature 527
15.11 Exercises 529
Part V: Stochastic Growth
Chapter 16: Stochastic Dynamic Programming 537
16.1 Dynamic Programming with Expectations 537
16.2 Proofs of the Stochastic Dynamic Programming Theorems * 544
16.3 Stochastic Euler Equations 549
16.4 Generalization to Markov Processes * 552
16.5 Applications of Stochastic Dynamic Programming 554
16.6 Taking Stock 561
16.7 References and Literature 561
16.8 Exercises 562
Chapter 17: Stochastic Growth Models 566
17.1 The Brock-Mirman Model 567
17.2 Equilibrium Growth under Uncertainty 571
17.3 Application: Real Business Cycle Models 579
17.4 Growth with Incomplete Markets: The Bewley Model 583
17.5 The Overlapping Generations Model with Uncertainty 586
17.6 Risk, Diversification, and Growth 588
17.7 Taking Stock 603
17.8 References and Literature 604
17.9 Exercises 605
Part VI: Technology Diffusion, Trade, and Interdependences
Chapter 18: Diffusion of Technology 611
18.1 Productivity Differences and Technology 611
18.2 A Benchmark Model of Technology Diffusion 613
18.3 Technology Diffusion and Endogenous Growth 619
18.4 Appropriate and Inappropriate Technologies and Productivity Differences 623
18.5 Contracting Institutions and Technology Adoption 630
18.6 Taking Stock 642
18.7 References and Literature 643
18.8 Exercises 644
Chapter 19: Trade and Growth 648
19.1 Growth and Financial Capital Flows 648
19.2 Why Does Capital Not Flow from Rich to Poor Countries? 653
19.3 Economic Growth in a Heckscher-Ohlin World 655
19.4 Trade, Specialization, and the World Income Distribution 663
19.5 Trade, Technology Diffusion, and the Product Cycle 674
19.6 Trade and Endogenous Technological Change 678
19.7 Learning-by-Doing, Trade, and Growth 680
19.8 Taking Stock 684
19.9 References and Literature 685
19.10 Exercises 687
Part VII: Economic Development and Economic Growth
Chapter 20: Structural Change and Economic Growth 697
20.1 Nonbalanced Growth: The Demand Side 697
20.2 Nonbalanced Growth: The Supply Side 703
20.3 Agricultural Productivity and Industrialization 715
20.4 Taking Stock 719
20.5 References and Literature 720
20.6 Exercises 721
Chapter 21: Structural Transformations and Market Failures in Development 725
21.1 Financial Development 726
21.2 Fertility, Mortality, and the Demographic Transition 729
21.3 Migration, Urbanization, and the Dual Economy 736
21.4 Distance to the Frontier and Changes in the Organization of Production 744
21.5 Multiple Equilibria from Aggregate Demand Externalities and the Big Push 752
21.6 Inequality, Credit Market Imperfections, and Human Capital 758
21.7 Toward a Unified Theory of Development and Growth? 764
21.8 Taking Stock 768
21.9 References and Literature 769
21.10 Exercises 771
Part VIII: The Political Economy of Growth
Chapter 22: Institutions, Political Economy, and Growth 781
22.1 The Impact of Institutions on Long-Run Development 781
22.2 Distributional Conflict and Economic Growth in a Simple Society 784
22.3 The Canonical Cobb-Douglas Model of Distributional Conflict 792
22.4 Distributional Conflict and Competition 793
22.5 Subgame Perfect versus Markov Perfect Equilibria 799
22.6 Inefficient Economic Institutions: A First Pass 802
22.7 Heterogeneous Preferences, Social Choice, and the Median Voter * 805
22.8 Distributional Conflict and Economic Growth: Heterogeneity and the Median Voter 814
22.9 The Provision of Public Goods: Weak versus Strong States 817
22.10 Taking Stock 822
22.11 References and Literature 823
22.12 Exercises 825
Chapter 23: Political Institutions and Economic Growth 831
23.1 Political Regimes and Economic Growth 832
23.2 Political Institutions and Growth-Enhancing Policies 834
23.3 Dynamic Trade-offs 837
23.4 Understanding Endogenous Political Change 850
23.5 Taking Stock 856
23.6 References and Literature 857
23.7 Exercises 858
Epilogue: Mechanics and Causes of Economic Growth 861
What Have We Learned? 861
A Possible Perspective on Growth and Stagnation over the Past 200 Years 864
Many Remaining Questions 872
Part IX: Mathematical Appendixes
Appendix A: Odds and Ends in Real Analysis and Applications to Optimization 877
A.1 Distances and Metric Spaces 878
A.2 Mappings, Functions, Sequences, Nets, and Continuity 880
A.3 A Minimal Amount of Topology: Continuity and Compactness * 885
A.4 The Product Topology * 889
A.5 Absolute Continuity and Equicontinuity * 891
A.6 Correspondences and Berge’s Maximum Theorem 894
A.7 Convexity, Concavity, Quasi-Concavity, and Fixed Points 898
A.8 Differentiation, Taylor Series, and the Mean Value Theorem 900
A.9 Functions of Several Variables and the Inverse and Implicit Function Theorems 904
A.10 Separation Theorems * 907
A.11 Constrained Optimization 910
A.12 Exercises 915
Appendix B: Review of Ordinary Differential Equations 917
B.1 Eigenvalues and Eigenvectors 917
B.2 Some Basic Results on Integrals 918
B.3 Linear Differential Equations 920
B.4 Solutions to Linear First-Order Differential Equations 921
B.5 Systems of Linear Differential Equations 924
B.6 Local Analysis and Stability of Nonlinear Differential Equations 926
B.7 Separable and Exact Differential Equations 927
B.8 Existence and Uniqueness of Solutions 929
B.9 Continuity and Differentiability of Solutions 930
B.10 Difference Equations 930
B.11 Exercises 932
Appendix C: Brief Review of Dynamic Games 934
C.1 Basic Definitions 934
C.2 Some Basic Results 937
C.3 Application: Repeated Games with Perfect Observability 941
C.4 Exercises 942
Appendix D: List of Theorems 944
Chapter 2 944
Chapter 5 944
Chapter 6 944
Chapter 7 945
Chapter 10 945
Chapter 16 945
Chapter 22 946
Appendix A 946
Appendix B 947
Appendix C 947
References 949
Name Index 971
Subject Index 977
· · · · · · (
收起)
