Bursts

艾伯特-拉斯洛•巴拉巴西（Albert-Laszlo Barabasi） 全球复杂网络研究权威，无尺度网络的创立者。美国物理学会院士，匈牙利科学院院士，欧洲科学院会员，美国东北大学教授，网络科学研究中心的创始人、主任，同时任职于哈佛大学媒体学院医学系，并担任丹那-法 伯癌症研究所癌症系统生物学中心的研究员。 Barabasi提出无尺度网络模型，2006年因此荣获了匈牙利计算机学会颁发的冯•诺依曼金质奖章，是建立基于网络共性的统一科学理论的先行者，是复杂网络界引述最多的科学家。 世界著名科技杂志《popular science》杂志称赞 Barabasi“他可以控制世界”。

出版者:Dutton Adult

作者:Albert-Laszlo Barabasi

页数:310

出版时间:2010-04-29

价格:GBP 17.23

装帧:Hardcover

isbn号码:9780525951605

图书标签:复杂网络人类行为预测网络阿尔伯特─拉斯罗•巴拉巴斯network复杂性科学datamining

Can we scientifically predict our future? Scientists and pseudoscientists have been pursuing this mystery for hundreds and perhaps thousands of years. But now, amazing new research is revealing that patterns in human behavior, previously thought to be purely random, follow predictable laws.

Albert-László Barabási, already the world's preeminent researcher on the science of networks, describes his work on this profound mystery in Bursts , a stunningly original investigation into human behavior. His approach relies on the way our lives have become digital. Mobile phones, the Internet, and e-mail have made human activities more accessible to quantitative analysis, turning our society into a huge research laboratory. All those electronic trails of time- stamped texts, voice mails, and searches add up to a previously unavailable massive data set that tracks our movements, our decisions, our lives. Analysis of these trails is offering deep insights into the rhythm of how we do everything. His finding? We work and fight and play in short flourishes of activity followed by next to nothing. Our daily pattern isn't random, it's "bursty." Bursts uncovers an astonishing deep order in our actions that makes us far more predictable than we like to think.

Illustrating this revolutionary science, Barabási artfully weaves together the story of a sixteenth-century burst of human activity-a bloody medieval crusade launched in his homeland, Transylvania-with the modern tale of a contemporary artist hunted by the FBI through our post-9/11 surveillance society. These narratives illustrate how predicting human behavior has long been the obsession, sometimes the duty, of those in power. Barabási's wide range of examples from seemingly unrelated areas includes how dollar bills move around the United States, the pattern everyone follows in writing e-mail, the spread of epidemics, and even the flight patterns of albatross. In all these phenomena a virtually identical bursty pattern emerges, a reflection of the universality of human behavior.

Bursts reveals where individual spontaneity ends and predictability in human behavior begins. The way you think about your own potential to do something truly extraordinary will never be the same.

读后感

这本书虽然比较新颖，但观点实质内容很少，废话很多，整本书都是在说泊松分布对于人类行为的预测不靠谱，幂律又如何如何靠谱，而且整本书都是在不停地卖关子卖关子卖关子……最多用来平时看看消磨时间，别抱太大期望。  

93%！ 这本书的作者艾伯特-拉斯洛·巴拉巴西要告诉我们的一个结论就是：人类行为93%是可以被预测的，只要我们有足够多对个人行为模式的数据采集，在现在这个数字化时代，你又有什么行为模式没有留下数字化痕迹呢？ 巴拉巴西用了一本书絮絮叨叨讲了好几个故事，还把一本书写成...  

生活抵触随机运动？ 胡泳 洞察数字社会重要性并将之引入中国人生活的第一人 人类的日常行为模式不是随机的，而是具有“爆发性”的。 预测人类行为是一个经久不衰的梦想。科学家乃至伪科学家们为了解开人类行为之谜，已经努力了数百上千年。美国东北大学教授艾伯特-拉斯洛...  

该书还未读完，点滴记录。 技术发展建立在人们不间断的科学探索上，自然现象能够被人类理解，描绘，量化和预测，并最终受到人的控制。人类的发展和行为路径究竟有没有规律可遵循？过去我们没有相关的数据，也没有一定的方法来探索人类的行为。而为何现在可以？很大一个原因是...  

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