Bursts

艾伯特-拉斯洛•巴拉巴西（Albert-Laszlo Barabasi） 全球复杂网络研究权威，无尺度网络的创立者。美国物理学会院士，匈牙利科学院院士，欧洲科学院会员，美国东北大学教授，网络科学研究中心的创始人、主任，同时任职于哈佛大学媒体学院医学系，并担任丹那-法 伯癌症研究所癌症系统生物学中心的研究员。 Barabasi提出无尺度网络模型，2006年因此荣获了匈牙利计算机学会颁发的冯•诺依曼金质奖章，是建立基于网络共性的统一科学理论的先行者，是复杂网络界引述最多的科学家。 世界著名科技杂志《popular science》杂志称赞 Barabasi“他可以控制世界”。

出版者:Dutton Adult

作者:Albert-Laszlo Barabasi

页数:310

出版时间:2010-04-29

价格:GBP 17.23

装帧:Hardcover

isbn号码:9780525951605

图书标签:复杂网络人类行为预测网络阿尔伯特─拉斯罗•巴拉巴斯network复杂性科学datamining

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Can we scientifically predict our future? Scientists and pseudoscientists have been pursuing this mystery for hundreds and perhaps thousands of years. But now, amazing new research is revealing that patterns in human behavior, previously thought to be purely random, follow predictable laws.

Albert-László Barabási, already the world's preeminent researcher on the science of networks, describes his work on this profound mystery in Bursts , a stunningly original investigation into human behavior. His approach relies on the way our lives have become digital. Mobile phones, the Internet, and e-mail have made human activities more accessible to quantitative analysis, turning our society into a huge research laboratory. All those electronic trails of time- stamped texts, voice mails, and searches add up to a previously unavailable massive data set that tracks our movements, our decisions, our lives. Analysis of these trails is offering deep insights into the rhythm of how we do everything. His finding? We work and fight and play in short flourishes of activity followed by next to nothing. Our daily pattern isn't random, it's "bursty." Bursts uncovers an astonishing deep order in our actions that makes us far more predictable than we like to think.

Illustrating this revolutionary science, Barabási artfully weaves together the story of a sixteenth-century burst of human activity-a bloody medieval crusade launched in his homeland, Transylvania-with the modern tale of a contemporary artist hunted by the FBI through our post-9/11 surveillance society. These narratives illustrate how predicting human behavior has long been the obsession, sometimes the duty, of those in power. Barabási's wide range of examples from seemingly unrelated areas includes how dollar bills move around the United States, the pattern everyone follows in writing e-mail, the spread of epidemics, and even the flight patterns of albatross. In all these phenomena a virtually identical bursty pattern emerges, a reflection of the universality of human behavior.

Bursts reveals where individual spontaneity ends and predictability in human behavior begins. The way you think about your own potential to do something truly extraordinary will never be the same.

读后感

个人喜好使然，不待见这种太过科普的写法。之前看作者另一本《链接》的时候还觉得值得做笔记以理解其逻辑主线，但在这本书里作者完全改变了写作风格，不知是写作此书的目的本身就是作为畅销书呢，还是作者跟编辑妥协了，抑或其他。无论什么原因，作者都用层层故事和大量跟主题...  

作者用东拉西扯的叙述手法，无非在反复强调三点： 1、泊松分布不靠谱， 2、93%有规律+7%爆发， 3、爆发是幂律分布。 对于为何幂律分布，如何爆发， 爆发背后隐藏的原因，则毫无分析。 就这三点，让作者写出一本书来，真佩服。 而且居然还卖60块一本。 烂书一本，非常失望。  

人类动力学是一个迷人的研究领域，其中孕育了一系列有意义的研究。《爆发：人类90%的行为是可以预测的》一书正是其中一本重要著作。 本书作者巴拉巴西是复杂网络研究的重要领军人物，1999年之后先后在《自然》、《科学》杂志上发表重要论文，指出诸如社会网络、神经网络、交通...  

用户评价

社交方式的技术革命带来了人类行为的量化分析。值得一提的是，Barabasi在science发表的论文那篇论文的引用率都到12000+了。。

算是在第一时间买的书，虽然研究的问题很重要，但我看来看去，勉强给个3.5星。

这书不行

社交方式的技术革命带来了人类行为的量化分析。值得一提的是，Barabasi在science发表的论文那篇论文的引用率都到12000+了。。

so so.