Historical Dynamics

出版者:Princeton University Press

作者:Peter Turchin

页数:260

出版时间:2003-9-29

价格:GBP 49.95

装帧:Hardcover

isbn号码:9780691116693

丛书系列:Princeton Studies in Complexity

图书标签:政治学社会学Complexity英文原版心理学历史管理历史学

承接 住宅 自建房 室内改造 装修设计 免费咨询 QQ：624617358 一级注册建筑师 亲自为您回答、经验丰富，价格亲民。无论项目大小，都全力服务。期待合作，欢迎咨询！QQ：624617358

Many historical processes are dynamic. Populations grow and decline. Empires expand and collapse. Religions spread and wither. Natural scientists have made great strides in understanding dynamical processes in the physical and biological worlds using a synthetic approach that combines mathematical modeling with statistical analyses. Taking up the problem of territorial dynamics - why some polities at certain times expand and at other times contract - this book shows that a similar research program can advance our understanding of dynamical processes in history. Peter Turchin develops hypotheses from a wide range of social, political, economic, and demographic factors: geopolitics, factors affecting collective solidarity, dynamics of ethnic assimilation/religious conversion, and the interaction between population dynamics and sociopolitical stability. He then translates these into a spectrum of mathematical models, investigates the dynamics predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns. Turchin's highly instructive empirical tests demonstrate that certain models predict empirical patterns with a very high degree of accuracy. For instance, one model accounts for the recurrent waves of state breakdown in medieval and early modern Europe. And historical data confirm that ethno-nationalist solidarity produces an aggressively expansive state under certain conditions (such as in locations where imperial frontiers coincide with religious divides). The strength of Turchin's results suggests that the synthetic approach he advocates can significantly improve our understanding of historical dynamics.

用户评价

http://www.ww2010.com/ww2010/turchin/, http://www.historydynamics.com/, http://historydynamics.herokuapp.com/historydynamics, http://www.douban.com/doulist/42499543/

http://www.ww2010.com/ww2010/turchin/, http://www.historydynamics.com/, http://historydynamics.herokuapp.com/historydynamics, http://www.douban.com/doulist/42499543/

http://www.ww2010.com/ww2010/turchin/, http://www.historydynamics.com/, http://historydynamics.herokuapp.com/historydynamics, http://www.douban.com/doulist/42499543/

http://www.ww2010.com/ww2010/turchin/, http://www.historydynamics.com/, http://historydynamics.herokuapp.com/historydynamics, http://www.douban.com/doulist/42499543/

http://www.ww2010.com/ww2010/turchin/, http://www.historydynamics.com/, http://historydynamics.herokuapp.com/historydynamics, http://www.douban.com/doulist/42499543/