Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics

出版者:Princeton University Press

作者:George W. Evans

页数:440

出版时间:2001-1-8

价格:GBP 70.95

装帧:Hardcover

isbn号码:9780691049212

图书标签:经济学ML宏观经济学Economics

A crucial challenge for economists is figuring out how people interpret the world and form expectations that will likely influence their economic activity. Inflation, asset prices, exchange rates, investment, and consumption are just some of the economic variables that are largely explained by expectations. Here George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja bring new explanatory power to a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor. Whereas the rational expectations paradigm offers the prevailing method to determining expectations, it assumes very theoretical knowledge on the part of economic actors. Evans and Honkapohja contribute to a growing body of research positing that households and firms learn by making forecasts using observed data, updating their forecast rules over time in response to errors.This book is the first systematic development of the new statistical learning approach. Depending on the particular economic structure, the economy may converge to a standard rational-expectations or a "rational bubble" solution, or exhibit persistent learning dynamics. The learning approach also provides tools to assess the importance of new models with expectational indeterminacy, in which expectations are an independent cause of macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, learning dynamics provide a theory for the evolution of expectations and selection between alternative equilibria, with implications for business cycles, asset price volatility, and policy. This book provides an authoritative treatment of this emerging field, developing the analytical techniques in detail and using them to synthesize and extend existing research.

用户评价

七年前看不懂的书，现在看如此简单

七年前看不懂的书，现在看如此简单

七年前看不懂的书，现在看如此简单

七年前看不懂的书，现在看如此简单

七年前看不懂的书，现在看如此简单