"约瑟夫·埃利斯
Joseph H. Ellis
高盛集团合伙人。1970~1994年,埃利斯专职从事零售业的分析,关注整个行业的发展趋势及一些公司的业绩表现,工作的最终目标是向高盛集团的客户提供整个零售业以及零售企业股票,如沃尔玛、联邦百货、Gap等的投资前景等相关建议。
埃利斯的从业经验已达35年,并连续18年被《机构投资者》(Institutional Investor)杂志评为华尔街第一零售业分析师。"
发表于2025-01-05
Ahead of the Curve 2025 pdf epub mobi 电子书
这本书预测宏观经济的方法很简单,就是通过找到领先指标从而提前判断经济走势及股市走势,属于宏观经济分析里的基础分析技能。作者遵循的一个逻辑是,个人实际单位时间收入可预测消费支出,消费支出指标领先工业生产与股票市场,进而再领先实际资本支出与公司利润,而就业...
评分西方经济学一向比较擅长用大量的数据分析和图表演示为依据,判断市场的状况,解析行情的走向。诚然这种把许多已有的信息进行量化,再进行综合放入数学模型运算比较直观,但也有弊端,那就是对于广大普通的读者来说,首先这是件有相当分量的技术活,没有学过经济学以及数学根底...
评分 评分我是看原版書的,可能水平有限,不過在看了之前多位讀者的觀感后,我說說我的讀後感吧。 書裏的東西非常的實在,但是只是作了抛磚引玉的動作。後面的東西需要您自己去實踐,多動手收集數據,自己做預測的研判,這也是我想這本書的簡單思路,他沒有告訴你一個預測的捷徑,可能根...
评分论图表读经济的可行性 评《我在高盛的经济预测法》 我一直坚持这种观点:经济学更重要的作用是用来解释经济运行的本质,而不是用来预测未来。当然,为将来做打算的规划、计划,不仅仅是公司需要,更是市场和国家(经济运行的两个主体)需要,这使得预测这门“不科学的学科”...
图书标签: 金融 商业 finance 经济学 证券 美国 经济 economics
How to Read the Signs of Economic Change-Before They Impact Your Business and Investments Economic and stock-market cycles affect companies in every industry. Unfortunately, a confusing array of anecdotal and conflicting indicators often renders it impossible for managers and investors to see where the economy is heading in time to take corrective action. Now, a thirty-five-year Wall Street veteran unveils a new forecasting method that will help managers and investors understand and predict the economic cycles that control their businesses and financial fates. In Ahead of the Curve , Joseph H. Ellis argues that the problem with current forecasting models lies not in the data, but rather in the lack of a clear framework for putting the data in context and reading it correctly. The book explains critical economic indicators in nontechnical language, identifies and documents the recurring cause-and-effect relationships that consistently predict turning points in the economy, and provides the tools managers and investors need to position themselves ahead of cyclical upturns and downturns. Economic events are not as random and unpredictable as they seem. This book will help readers recognize and react to signs of change that their rivals don't see-and win a sizeable competitive advantage.
既要考虑长期增长前景,又要兼顾市场周期性波动。
评分Yes it is the RATE OF CHANGE which matters.
评分既要考虑长期增长前景,又要兼顾市场周期性波动。
评分consumer spending index.
评分Yes it is the RATE OF CHANGE which matters.
Ahead of the Curve 2025 pdf epub mobi 电子书