"約瑟夫·埃利斯
Joseph H. Ellis
高盛集團閤夥人。1970~1994年,埃利斯專職從事零售業的分析,關注整個行業的發展趨勢及一些公司的業績錶現,工作的最終目標是嚮高盛集團的客戶提供整個零售業以及零售企業股票,如沃爾瑪、聯邦百貨、Gap等的投資前景等相關建議。
埃利斯的從業經驗已達35年,並連續18年被《機構投資者》(Institutional Investor)雜誌評為華爾街第一零售業分析師。"
How to Read the Signs of Economic Change-Before They Impact Your Business and Investments Economic and stock-market cycles affect companies in every industry. Unfortunately, a confusing array of anecdotal and conflicting indicators often renders it impossible for managers and investors to see where the economy is heading in time to take corrective action. Now, a thirty-five-year Wall Street veteran unveils a new forecasting method that will help managers and investors understand and predict the economic cycles that control their businesses and financial fates. In Ahead of the Curve , Joseph H. Ellis argues that the problem with current forecasting models lies not in the data, but rather in the lack of a clear framework for putting the data in context and reading it correctly. The book explains critical economic indicators in nontechnical language, identifies and documents the recurring cause-and-effect relationships that consistently predict turning points in the economy, and provides the tools managers and investors need to position themselves ahead of cyclical upturns and downturns. Economic events are not as random and unpredictable as they seem. This book will help readers recognize and react to signs of change that their rivals don't see-and win a sizeable competitive advantage.
發表於2025-04-24
Ahead of the Curve 2025 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載
《我在高盛的經濟預測法》是一本研究宏觀經濟周期預測的好書。 宏觀經濟的體係相當繁復,這就導緻瞭直到今天,對於宏觀經濟預測一直缺少一套標準的原則和方法,宏觀經濟預測的準確性也相當令人遺憾。作者做為一名多年從事消費行業研究的資深研究人員,從消費的角度對宏觀經濟...
評分在美國,GDP的70%來自於消費,因此,消費就成瞭決定經濟的最重要的因素。消費決定瞭經濟。 因此,預測瞭消費,就預測瞭經濟。 這個規律在中國也將日益顯現,雖然現在中國的消費占經濟還不是很大,中産階級還未成為主流。
評分論圖錶讀經濟的可行性 評《我在高盛的經濟預測法》 我一直堅持這種觀點:經濟學更重要的作用是用來解釋經濟運行的本質,而不是用來預測未來。當然,為將來做打算的規劃、計劃,不僅僅是公司需要,更是市場和國傢(經濟運行的兩個主體)需要,這使得預測這門“不科學的學科”...
評分 評分這本書預測宏觀經濟的方法很簡單,就是通過找到領先指標從而提前判斷經濟走勢及股市走勢,屬於宏觀經濟分析裏的基礎分析技能。作者遵循的一個邏輯是,個人實際單位時間收入可預測消費支齣,消費支齣指標領先工業生産與股票市場,進而再領先實際資本支齣與公司利潤,而就業...
圖書標籤: 金融 商業 finance 經濟學 證券 美國 經濟 economics
consumer spending index.
評分Worth reading it if you r interested in business world
評分Worth reading it if you r interested in business world
評分Worth reading it if you r interested in business world
評分很不錯
Ahead of the Curve 2025 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載