We live in an age of serial asset bubbles and spectacular busts. Economists, policymakers, central bankers and most people in the financial world have been blindsided by these busts, while investors have lost trillions. Economists argue that bubbles can only be spotted after they burst and that market moves are unpredictable. Yet Marathon Asset Management, a London-based investment firm managing over $50 billion of assets has developed a relatively simple method for identifying and potentially avoiding them: follow the money, or rather the trail of investment. Bubbles whether they affect a whole economy or merely a single industry, tend to attract a splurge of capital spending. Excessive investment drives down returns and leads inexorably to a bust. This was the case with both the technology bubble at the turn of the century and the US housing bubble which followed shortly after. More recently, vast sums have been invested in mining and energy. From an investor's perspective, the trick is to avoid investing in sectors, or markets, where investment spending is unduly elevated and competition is fierce, and to put one's money to work where capital expenditure is depressed, competitive conditions are more favourable and, as a result, prospective investment returns are higher. This capital cycle strategy encourages investors to eschew the simple 'growth' and 'value' dichotomy and identify firms that can deliver superior returns either because capital has been taken out of an industry, or because the business has strong barriers to entry (what Warren Buffett refers to as a 'moat'). Some of Marathon's most successful investments have come from obscure, sometimes niche operations whose businesses are protected from the destructive forces of the capital cycle. Capital Returns is a comprehensive introduction to the theory and practical implementation of the capital cycle approach to investment. Edited and with an introduction by Edward Chancellor, the book brings together 60 of the most insightful reports written between 2002 and 2014 by Marathon portfolio managers. Capital Returns provides key insights into the capital cycle strategy, all supported with real life examples from global brewers to the semiconductor industry - showing how this approach can be usefully applied to different industry conditions and how, prior to 2008, it helped protect assets from financial catastrophe. This book will be a welcome reference for serious investors who looking to maximise portfolio returns over the long run.
發表於2025-02-02
Capital Returns 2025 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載
2019年3月,吳小莉女士和曹德旺先生進行瞭一番對話。期間,吳問曹,現在經濟迴暖,是否看到瞭春天呢?曹迴答說,都是人工吹起來的,你說是真的暖嗎?你現在隻是感覺有些冷,真正的鼕天,還沒有到來。 福耀玻璃恐怕是中國製造的良心,而曹德旺從80年代草創福耀一路走來,幾乎每...
評分分析師和投資人員習慣於外推當前趨勢。在一個周期性的世界中,他們的思維卻是綫性的。 公司與資産擴張相關的行為——例如並購、新股發行和新的貸款,常常會伴以此後的低迴報。相反,與資産收縮相關的行為——包括分立、股票迴購、償債和分配股利,常常會伴以此後正的超額迴報。...
評分 評分2019年3月,吳小莉女士和曹德旺先生進行瞭一番對話。期間,吳問曹,現在經濟迴暖,是否看到瞭春天呢?曹迴答說,都是人工吹起來的,你說是真的暖嗎?你現在隻是感覺有些冷,真正的鼕天,還沒有到來。 福耀玻璃恐怕是中國製造的良心,而曹德旺從80年代草創福耀一路走來,幾乎每...
圖書標籤: 投資 金融 finance 資本周期 周期 資本配置 馬拉鬆公司 證券
後麵就生拉硬湊瞭,前70%不錯。常識性書籍。
評分gut
評分基於資本周期的投資
評分基於資本周期的投資
評分Marathon Asset Management 2002-2015年給投資者的信
Capital Returns 2025 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載