We live in an age of serial asset bubbles and spectacular busts. Economists, policymakers, central bankers and most people in the financial world have been blindsided by these busts, while investors have lost trillions. Economists argue that bubbles can only be spotted after they burst and that market moves are unpredictable. Yet Marathon Asset Management, a London-based investment firm managing over $50 billion of assets has developed a relatively simple method for identifying and potentially avoiding them: follow the money, or rather the trail of investment. Bubbles whether they affect a whole economy or merely a single industry, tend to attract a splurge of capital spending. Excessive investment drives down returns and leads inexorably to a bust. This was the case with both the technology bubble at the turn of the century and the US housing bubble which followed shortly after. More recently, vast sums have been invested in mining and energy. From an investor's perspective, the trick is to avoid investing in sectors, or markets, where investment spending is unduly elevated and competition is fierce, and to put one's money to work where capital expenditure is depressed, competitive conditions are more favourable and, as a result, prospective investment returns are higher. This capital cycle strategy encourages investors to eschew the simple 'growth' and 'value' dichotomy and identify firms that can deliver superior returns either because capital has been taken out of an industry, or because the business has strong barriers to entry (what Warren Buffett refers to as a 'moat'). Some of Marathon's most successful investments have come from obscure, sometimes niche operations whose businesses are protected from the destructive forces of the capital cycle. Capital Returns is a comprehensive introduction to the theory and practical implementation of the capital cycle approach to investment. Edited and with an introduction by Edward Chancellor, the book brings together 60 of the most insightful reports written between 2002 and 2014 by Marathon portfolio managers. Capital Returns provides key insights into the capital cycle strategy, all supported with real life examples from global brewers to the semiconductor industry - showing how this approach can be usefully applied to different industry conditions and how, prior to 2008, it helped protect assets from financial catastrophe. This book will be a welcome reference for serious investors who looking to maximise portfolio returns over the long run.
發表於2024-12-22
Capital Returns 2024 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載
相比對需求的預測,分析業已發生的供給側因素更加靠譜,從資本驅動的供給側變動來觀察行業格局、競爭策略、定價策略和資本迴報,這是馬拉鬆公司提齣的資本周期理論方法論。提及的分析指標包括ROE、CFROI、市值與自由現金流比率、現金流利潤轉化率等。 過度的資本湧入帶來資本支...
評分 評分2019年3月,吳小莉女士和曹德旺先生進行瞭一番對話。期間,吳問曹,現在經濟迴暖,是否看到瞭春天呢?曹迴答說,都是人工吹起來的,你說是真的暖嗎?你現在隻是感覺有些冷,真正的鼕天,還沒有到來。 福耀玻璃恐怕是中國製造的良心,而曹德旺從80年代草創福耀一路走來,幾乎每...
評分Marathon是倫敦的一傢股票基金管理公司,管理的資産超過500億美元。他們每年會給投資者寫8封信/投資迴顧(Global Investment Review),每封信有五、六篇文章,談談他們對市場和股票的看法。這本書是他們在2002-2015年期間部分投資迴顧基礎上編寫的。編輯Edward Chancellor此前...
評分分析師和投資人員習慣於外推當前趨勢。在一個周期性的世界中,他們的思維卻是綫性的。 公司與資産擴張相關的行為——例如並購、新股發行和新的貸款,常常會伴以此後的低迴報。相反,與資産收縮相關的行為——包括分立、股票迴購、償債和分配股利,常常會伴以此後正的超額迴報。...
圖書標籤: 投資 金融 finance 資本周期 周期 資本配置 馬拉鬆公司 證券
基於資本周期的投資
評分gut
評分supply-side driven cycle from a capital perspective
評分非常簡單而傳統的投資理念,基於周期(均值迴歸)、供需、價值與增長之間的轉換。第一章鱈魚的例子非常深刻,專門寫中國的一章有一定的參考價值,最後一章描述華爾街的投資銀行傢也十分有趣。
評分基於資本周期的投資
Capital Returns 2024 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載