Knowledge in Risk Assessment and Management

出版者:Wiley

作者:Terje Aven

页数:360

出版时间:2018-2-12

价格:USD 100.00

装帧:Hardcover

isbn号码:9781119317890

具体描述

Featuring contributions by an international team of researchers and respected practitioners in the field, this book explores the latest developments in the ongoing effort to use risk assessment as a means for characterizing knowledge and/or lack of knowledge about a system or process of interest. By offering a fresh perspective on risk assessment and management, the book represents a significant contribution to the development of a sturdier foundation for the practice of risk assessment and for risk-informed decision making. How should K be described and evaluated in risk assessment? How can it be reflected and taken into account in formulating risk management strategies? With the help of numerous case studies and real-world examples, this book answers these and other critical questions at the heart of modern risk assessment, while identifying many practical challenges associated with this explicit framework. This book, written by international scholars and leaders in the field, and edited to make coverage both conceptually advanced and highly accessible: Offers a systematic, rigorous and transparent perspective and framework on risk assessment and management, explicitly strengthening the links between knowledge and risk. Clearly and concisely introduces the key risk concepts at the foundation of risk assessment and management. Features numerous cases and real-world examples, many of which focused on various engineering applications across an array of industries. Knowledge of Risk Assessment and Management is a must-read for risk assessment and management professionals, as well as graduate students, researchers and educators in the field. It is also of interest to policy makers and business people who are eager to gain a better understanding of the foundations and boundaries of risk assessment, and how its outcomes should be used for decision-making.

作者简介

TERJE AVEN, PhD is Professor in Risk Analysis and Risk Management at the University of Stavanger, Norway. He is Editor-in-Chief of Journal of Risk and Reliability, the Chairman of the European Safety and Reliability Association and President-Elect of the Society for Risk Analysis.

ENRICO ZIO, PhD is Director of the Chair on Systems Science and the Energetic Challenge of the Foundation Electricite' de France, at the Laboratoire de Genie Industriel (LGI), CentraleSupélec, Universite' Paris-Saclay, France, and full professor of the Department of Energy and President of the Alumni Association at Politecnico di Milano, Italy.

目录信息

List of Contributors vii
Preface ix
Acknowledgements xv
Part I Fundamental Ideas, Principles and Approaches 1
1 Risk Assessment with Broad Uncertainty and Knowledge Characterisation: An Illustrating Case Study 3
Terje Aven and Roger Flage
2 The Enigma of Knowledge in the Risk Field 27
Terje Aven and Marja Ylönen
3 Treatment and Communication of Uncertain Assumptions in (Semi ]) quantitative Risk Assessments 49
Roger Flage and Christine L. Berner
4 Critical Slowing ]down Framework for Monitoring Early Warning Signs of Surprise and Unforeseen Events 81
Ivan Damnjanovic and Terje Aven
5 Improving the Foundation and Practice of Uncertainty Analysis: Strengthening Links to Knowledge and Risk 103
Terje Aven
6 Completeness Uncertainty: Conceptual Clarification and Treatment 127
Torbjørn Bjerga, Terje Aven, and Roger Flage
7 Quality of Risk Assessment: Definition and Verification 143
Terje Aven and Enrico Zio
8 Knowledge ]driven System Simulation for Scenario Analysis in Risk Assessment 165
Pietro Turati, Nicola Pedroni, and Enrico Zio
Part II Risk Assessment and Decision Making 221
9 A Decision Support Method for Prioritizing Investments Subject to Uncertainties 223
Shital Thekdi and Terje Aven
10 Risk Analysis under Structural Uncertainty 241
Sven Ove Hansson
Part III Applications 265
11 A Practical Approach to Risk Assessments from Design to Operation of Offshore Oil and Gas Installations 267
Vegard L. Tuft, Beate R. Wagnild, and Olga M. Slyngstad
12 A Semi ]quantitative Approach for Assessment of Risk Trends in the Norwegian Oil and Gas Industry 297
Eirik Bjorheim Abrahamsen, Jon Tømmerås Selvik, Bjørnar Heide, and Jan Erik Vinnem
13 Knowledge Engineering at a Risk ]informed Regulatory Agency: Challenges and Suggestions 313
Nathan Siu and Kevin Coyne
Index 339
· · · · · · (收起)

用户评价

这本书的语言风格，可以说是其最大的“门槛”。它行文流畅，逻辑缜密，但似乎是为那些已经拥有深厚风险管理背景的专家量身打造的。对于我们这些需要跨界学习、对特定术语需要反复查阅的读者而言，阅读过程充满了停顿和回溯。大量的专业术语被密集地堆砌在一起，仿佛作者在进行一场智力上的炫技，而非耐心地引导读者。我特别想找到一些关于“软性风险”——比如声誉风险、内部政治风险或知识产权流失风险——的系统性评估工具，但这些非量化的领域在书中被处理得尤为单薄。作者似乎更偏爱那些可以用数字精确描绘的工程或金融风险。比如，在讨论项目风险管理时，书中对挣值管理等技术指标的描述细致入微，但对于如何有效评估和激励一个项目团队在面对压力时保持道德操守和协作效率，却几乎没有提及。这本书的价值在于其理论的严谨性，但代价是它牺牲了作为一本面向广大从业者的指南所应具备的易读性和包容性。

初次翻开这本书，我本以为能从中找到一些关于“韧性建设”的创新思路，毕竟在当前快速变化的环境下，传统的风险规避策略显得越来越力不从心。然而，此书的重心似乎仍然牢牢地钉在了传统的“识别-分析-控制”的线性流程上，对于如何构建一个能够自我修复、适应未知冲击的组织系统着墨不多。特别是在企业文化与风险偏好的交叉领域，作者只是轻描淡写地提到了“高层支持的重要性”，却鲜有深入探讨如何自下而上地培养一种积极的风险承担与学习的文化。我尤其关注了关于“黑天鹅事件”的讨论，期待能有更具前瞻性的思维模型，教我们如何管理那些我们甚至无法想象的风险。书中对历史案例的复盘倒是详实，但大多是针对已发生的、可归因的事件，对于那种本质上不可预测的“未知之未知”，依然停留在哲学思辨层面，缺乏可操作的预警机制设计。对于渴望提升组织敏捷性和长期生存能力的前沿管理者来说，这本书提供的视角略显陈旧和保守，像是在用牛刀雕琢过去的失误，而非展望未来的挑战。

这本书的阅读体验，说实话，让我对“管理”二字有了更深的困惑。它花了大量篇幅强调风险的“可控性”和“系统性”，似乎预设了一个理想化的、信息完全透明的管理环境。然而，现实世界中的风险管理充满了信息不对称、利益冲突和非理性决策。我非常希望这本书能够提供一些应对“人”的因素带来的不确定性的工具，比如如何设计激励机制来避免“道德风险”的产生，或者如何量化和管理“认知偏差”对风险判断的扭曲。书中对这些行为科学层面的探讨，几乎可以忽略不计，这在当代风险管理中是一个巨大的遗漏。当我试图寻找关于如何在快速迭代的商业环境中进行“适应性治理”的讨论时，我发现作者提供的模型大多是静态的，它们在应对快速变化的市场动态时，显得反应迟钝。这本书更像是一份对二十世纪风险管理范式的完美总结，但它对二十一世纪由技术和速度驱动的新风险形态，提供的指导价值却远不如其理论的篇幅所暗示的那样有价值。

当我合上这本书时，脑海中浮现的印象是“全面”但“缺乏焦点”。它试图覆盖风险管理的方方面面，从宏观的战略风险到微观的操作风险，似乎没有遗漏任何一个角落。然而，这种广撒网式的覆盖导致了其内容深度上的不足。在某些章节，比如供应链风险或合规性风险的讨论中，我感觉作者的论述很快就达到了一个停滞点，随后就匆匆转向了下一个主题。例如，在探讨全球化背景下的地缘政治风险时，我期待看到更具洞察力的风险矩阵和情景规划方法，但书中提供的仅仅是教科书式的风险分类。更让我感到困惑的是，书中似乎没有明确提出一套适用于中小型企业的风险管理框架。所有的方法论都带有浓厚的服务于大型跨国集团的色彩，那些资源有限、组织结构扁平的公司，很难将这些复杂的流程直接“搬运”到自己的日常运营中而不产生巨大的行政负担。这本书更像是一份详尽的“风险管理百科全书”，而非一本能提供“即时解药”的实用手册。

这本号称能带你深入“风险评估与管理”核心领域的书籍，坦白说，读完后我感觉自己更像是参加了一场漫长的理论马拉松，而不是一次实用的知识补给。作者似乎花费了大量的篇幅在构建一个庞大而精密的理论框架上，这一点从其引用的文献密度和复杂程度就能窥见一斑。然而，对于一个急切想在实际工作中找到立竿见影工具的读者来说，这种“高屋建瓴”的叙述方式显得有些力不从心。书中对概率论在风险量化中的应用进行了详尽的阐述，各种分布函数、贝叶斯推断被反复提及，如同在向我们证明，风险分析的数学基础是多么的坚不可摧。但令人遗憾的是，当涉及到如何将这些复杂的模型“翻译”成日常管理层能理解的、可执行的行动方案时，文字就开始变得模糊和抽象。我期待看到更多关于跨部门协作中风险沟通的案例分析，或是针对新兴技术（比如人工智能在决策中的偏差）的风险应对策略，但这些关键的实操层面往往只是一笔带过，仿佛它们只是理论大厦的装饰而非基石。整体阅读体验，更像是在研读一本学术专著，而不是一本旨在指导实践的工具书。