Big Debt Crises

出版者:Bridgewater

作者:Ray Dalio

页数:456

出版时间:2018-10-15

价格:USD 50.00

装帧:Hardcover

isbn号码:9781732689800

具体描述

"Ray Dalio's excellent study provides an innovative way of thinking about debt crises and the policy response." - Ben Bernanke

"Ray Dalio's book is must reading for anyone who aspires to prevent or manage through the next financial crisis." - Larry Summers

"A terrific piece of work from one of the world's top investors who has devoted his life to understanding markets and demonstrated that understanding by navigating the 2008 financial crisis well." - Hank Paulson

"An outstanding history of financial crises, including the devastating crisis of 2008, with a very valuable framework for understanding why the engine of the financial system occasionally breaks down, and what types of policy actions by central banks and governments are necessary to resolve systemic financial crises. This should serve as a play book for future policy makers, with practical guidance about what to do and what not to do." - Tim Geithner

On the 10th anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis, one of the world's most successful investors, Ray Dalio, shares his unique template for how debt crises work and principles for dealing with them well. This template allowed his firm, Bridgewater Associates, to anticipate events and navigate them well while others struggled badly.

As he explained in his #1 New York Times Bestseller, Principles: Life & Work, Dalio believes that most everything happens over and over again through time so that by studying their patterns one can understand the cause-effect relationships behind them and develop principles for dealing with them well. In this 3-part research series, he does that for big debt crises and shares his template in the hopes reducing the chances of big debt crises happening and helping them be better managed in the future.

The template comes in three parts provided in three books: 1) The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle (which explains the template), 2) 3 Detailed Cases (which examines in depth the 2008 financial crisis, the 1930's Great Depression, and the 1920's inflationary depression of Germany's Weimar Republic), and 3) Compendium of 48 Cases (which is a compendium of charts and brief descriptions of the worst debt crises of the last 100 years). Whether you're an investor, a policy maker, or are simply interested, the unconventional perspective of one of the few people who navigated the crises successfully, A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises will help you understand the economy and markets in revealing new ways.

作者简介

Ray Dalio is the founder, Co-Chief Investment Officer and Co-Chairman of Bridgewater Associates. Bridgewater is a global asset manager and leader in institutional portfolio management as well as the largest hedge fund in the world. Under Ray s guidance, Bridgewater has developed a distinctive culture, an idea-meritocracy that produces meaningful work and meaningful relationships through radical truth and radical transparency that is the foundation of the firm s success. Since starting Bridgewater out of his two-bedroom apartment in New York in 1975, Ray has grown the firm into the largest hedge fund in the world, the 5th most important company in the U.S. according to Fortune Magazine, and has led it to make more money for clients than any other hedge fund since its inception, according to LCH Investments. For his innovative work as well as being a valued advisor to many global policy makers, Ray has also been called the Steve Jobs of Investing by CIO Magazine and Wired Magazine, and been named one of TIME Magazine s 100 Most Influential People. Over the past three decades, he wrote down his decision-making criteria and has recently passed along his principles and tools through his book, Principles: Life & Work, a New York Times #1 Bestseller and Amazon #1 Business Book of 2017.

目录信息

Acknowledgement
Introduction 7
Part 1: The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle 9
How I Think about Credit and Debt 9
The Template for the Archetypal Long-Term/Big Debt Cycle 13
Our Examination of the Cycle 13
The Phases of the Classic Deflationary Debt Cycle 16
-The Early Part of the Cycle 16
-The Bubble 16
-The Top 21
-The "Depression" 23
-The "Beautiful Deleveraging" 32
-"Pushing on a String" 35
-Normalization 38
Inflationary Depressions and Currency Crises 39
The Phases of the Classic Inflationary Debt Cycle 41
-The Early Part of the Cycle 41
-The Bubble 42
-The Top and Currency Defense 45
-The Depression (Often When the Currency Is Let Go) 49
-Normalization 54
The Spiral from a More Transitory Inflationary
Depression to Hyperinflation 58
War Economies 61
In Summary 64
PART 2: Detailed Case Studies
German Debt Crisis and Hyperinflation (l918-1924}
US Debt Crisis and Adiustment (1928-1937)
US Debt Crisis and Adiustment (2007-2011)
PART 3: Compendium of 48 Case Studies
Glossary of Key Economic Terms
Primarily Domestic Currency Debt Crises
Non-Domestic Currency Debt Crises
Appendix: Macroprudential Policies
· · · · · · (收起)

读后感

这是一本特别有名的书。我的阅读体验是，核心思想非常精彩，但是书中包含了大量历史细节，特别是对于国际贸易和债务市场不熟悉的人，这部分内容会造成一定的阅读障碍。如果用资产负债表变化来构想达里奥的理论，他的模型会变得很容易理解。这篇文章用我自己的语言，对核心思想...  

因信贷不足而导致发展缓慢，无疑是坏事。但当债务人无力偿还债务时，就会产生债务问题。换言之，判断信贷/债务快速增长是好事还是坏事，取决于信贷产生的结果和债务偿还情况。 相比信贷/债务增长过快，其增长过慢导致的经济问题同样严重，甚至会更糟糕，因为信贷/债务增长过慢...  

去年下半年，有幸跟全国较为优秀的出版集团中信和全球较为优秀的对冲基金桥水合作（此表述符合《新广告法》规定），参与桥水创始人瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises一书的翻译。时隔数月，中文名定为《债务危机》的一书终得出版，今年3月在京...  

用户评价

初次阅读《大债务危机》，我以为它会是一本充斥着晦涩经济术语和复杂模型的研究报告，然而，事实证明我的预设过于狭隘。这本书的魅力在于它将严肃的经济学理论与引人入胜的历史叙事完美地融合在了一起。作者以一种非常人性化的视角，讲述了那些在债务危机中沉浮的人物和国家的故事。他让我们看到了那些在高位决策者们的挣扎与无奈，也看到了普通民众在经济风暴中的痛苦与挣扎。通过对一个个具体案例的深入分析，比如某些国家如何因为过度举债而陷入长期停滞，或者某个金融机构如何因为激进的扩张策略而最终走向崩溃，作者让我们对债务这个抽象的概念有了更加具象的理解。他特别强调了不同国家在应对债务危机时的政策选择，以及这些选择所带来的截然不同的后果。有的国家通过果断的改革和重组走出了困境，重新焕发了生机；而有的国家则因为犹豫不决或者错误的应对方式，将危机进一步深化，付出了更沉重的代价。我特别喜欢作者在分析过程中，常常会穿插一些生动的比喻和形象的描述，这使得原本可能枯燥的内容变得易于理解和消化。例如，他将过度举债比喻成“饮鸩止渴”，将金融泡沫比喻成“空中楼阁”，这些都极大地增强了文章的可读性，也让我能够更加深刻地体会到债务危机背后所蕴含的危险。

《大债务危机》这本书，与其说是一本学术著作，不如说是一部深刻的社会经济现象的侦探小说。作者就像一位经验丰富的侦探，带领读者一步步解开隐藏在复杂金融体系背后的迷雾。他并没有回避那些令人不安的事实，而是直面那些导致大规模债务危机的根源性问题。我从书中了解到，债务危机并非偶然事件，而是多种因素长期积累和相互作用的结果。作者在书中详细阐述了“信用周期”的重要性，以及当信贷扩张达到顶峰时，一旦出现任何风吹草动，都可能引发连锁反应，导致金融体系的崩溃。他通过历史上的多个案例，展现了信贷泡沫是如何在低利率和宽松的监管环境下悄然膨胀，最终变得难以维持。而一旦泡沫破裂，随之而来的便是银行挤兑、企业破产、失业率飙升以及社会动荡。我尤其对作者关于“传染效应”的分析印象深刻，他清晰地描绘了危机是如何从一个国家或一个市场蔓延到另一个国家或另一个市场，形成全球性的冲击。这种全球化的金融风险，使得任何一个经济体都难以独善其身。这本书让我对金融市场的运行机制有了更深层次的认识，也让我更加警惕那些看似繁荣背后潜藏的危机。

《大债务危机》这本书，给我带来的最深刻的感受是，它不仅仅是一本关于金融的书，更是一本关于人类社会发展进程中，那些反复出现的经济规律的书。作者以一种旁观者的冷静和洞察力，带领我回顾了历史上那些令人触目惊心的债务危机。他并没有将这些危机仅仅视为孤立的金融事件，而是将其置于更广阔的历史和社会背景下进行考察。我从书中看到了，在不同的历史时期，不同的国家，由于相似的经济逻辑和人性弱点，却上演着相似的悲剧。作者着重强调了“结构性问题”在债务危机中的作用，他指出，许多国家的债务问题并非源于一时的政策失误，而是根植于其经济结构、制度设计以及社会文化之中。我特别欣赏作者在分析时，所展现出的那种跨学科的视角，他不仅仅关注经济数据，还会深入探讨政治体制、法律框架、国际关系等因素是如何影响债务的形成和演变的。这本书让我对“历史的重复性”有了更深刻的认识，它警示我们在追求经济发展的同时，必须时刻保持警惕，关注那些可能导致长期风险的结构性问题，并且要有足够的智慧和勇气去应对它们。

这本书的名字叫《大债务危机》，单听书名就足以让人心头一紧，仿佛能嗅到一丝丝金融风暴的气息。我拿到这本书的时候，正值全球经济在各种不确定性中摇摇欲坠，对“债务”这个词的敏感度尤为强烈。翻开书页，我首先被作者开篇的宏大叙事所吸引，他并没有直接切入枯燥的数据和理论，而是用一种近乎历史学家的严谨，勾勒出历史上几次著名的债务危机是如何一步步酝酿，最终爆发，又如何以惨烈的方式席卷全球，改变了经济格局，甚至影响了政治走向。我仿佛看到了一幅幅生动的画面：19世纪末的拉美债务危机，给当时充满希望的新兴市场泼了一盆冷水；亚洲金融风暴的连锁反应，让“亚洲奇迹”蒙上了阴影；而近在眼前的2008年全球金融危机，更是让无数人至今心有余悸。作者在叙述中，非常注重对危机背后深层原因的剖析，他不仅仅满足于描述表面的现象，而是深入挖掘了政治体制、货币政策、金融创新、国际贸易以及个体和国家的行为模式等诸多因素是如何交织在一起，最终推向了危险的边缘。我尤其对作者对“道德风险”的探讨印象深刻，那些看似“大而不能倒”的金融机构，在承担风险时是如何地肆无忌惮，而一旦危机来临，却又是如何地理所当然地寻求纳税人的救助。这种权力与责任的不对称，在书中被揭示得淋漓尽致，让人不禁深思。

这本书给我最大的启发在于，它让我认识到理解债务危机，不仅仅是理解宏观经济数据，更是要理解人性中的贪婪、恐惧和短视。作者在《大债务危机》中，用一种非常宏大的视角，审视了不同历史时期、不同地区发生的债务危机。他并没有简单地罗列事件，而是深入剖析了危机爆发的逻辑链条，以及其中涉及到的政治、经济、社会等各个层面的互动。我从书中了解到，很多债务危机并非是突如其来的黑天鹅事件，而是在长期的经济发展过程中，各种矛盾和问题逐渐积累而成的。作者花了大量的篇幅去阐述“周期性”在债务问题中的作用，他指出，经济周期和信用周期往往相互缠绕，当信贷过度扩张与经济的繁荣期叠加时，就为未来的危机埋下了伏笔。我尤其被书中关于“预防比治疗更重要”的观点所打动，作者通过对历史案例的分析，揭示了许多危机是可以被提前预警和避免的，关键在于决策者是否具备足够的远见和勇气去采取必要的措施。这本书让我对“警惕”二字有了更深刻的理解，它提醒我们在享受经济增长的同时，也要时刻关注那些可能潜藏的风险。

ray dalio还用说什么

当时特别担心经济形势找来读的，很多数字图表近乎教科书。所以读得也缓慢。读到德国魏玛共和国的案例那里就没有读下去了。

简单又能把事情说明白

Ray Dalio的现实主义贯穿始终，在解决债务危机面前，道德是次要的。

囫囵吞枣的第一遍