Coal--bridge to the future: A report of the World Coal Study， WOCOL

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isbn号码:9780884100997

The World Coal Study (WOCOL) has been an international

project involving over 80 people from 16 major coal-using and coal-

producing countries. This is our Final Report: the product of 18

months of intensive work.

WOCOL came into being as a result of my belief that there

was an urgent need to examine the role that coal might play in meeting

world energy needs during the next 20 years. Such a choice is being

forced upon us. Oil from OPEC countries can no longer be relied

upon to provide expanding supplies of energy, even with rapidly rising

prices. Neither can nuclear energy be planned on for rapid expansion

worldwide until present uncertainties about it are resolved. Yet the

world's energy needs will continue to grow, even with vigorous energy

conservation programs and with optimistic rates of expansion in the

use of solar energy.

Coal already supplies 25 percent of the world's energy, its

reserves are vast, and it is relatively inexpensive. But no major

attempt has previously been made to examine the needs for coal on a

global scale, to match requirements of users with potential capacities

of producers, to look at the markets coal might fill, or to examine the

obstacles to a rapid expansion in coal use and how they might be

overcome.

This experiment in international collaboration in WOCOL

follows directly from the Workshop on Alternative Energy Strategies

(WAES), which I directed. In WAES we concluded, in our report

published in early 1977,1 that the world might find its oil supplies

being constrained by limitations on exports from OPEC countries at

some time during the 1980s. This report was generally regarded at

the time as being too pessimistic. In fact, it proved to be optimistic

it is now clear that we are already in that position in 1980.

WAES assembled a group of people who could engage in free-

ranging discussion and who worked hard together and reached agree-

ment on a plausible range of global energy futures. These people

came from key positions in governments and private and public orga-

1. ENERGY: Global Prospects 1985-2000 (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1977).