詹姆斯•索羅維基(James Surowiecki)
《紐約客》雜誌特約撰稿人。他的文章見諸很多齣版物,包括《紐約時報》《華爾街日報》《藝術論壇報》《連綫》雜誌和《候選人名單》雜誌。索羅維基最初在《紐約客》雜誌的“金融專版”闡述瞭群體智慧的思想,迴答瞭美國社會長期以來對群體智慧和團隊決策能力的質疑。
While our culture generally trusts experts and distrusts the wisdom of the masses, New Yorker business columnist Surowiecki argues that "under the right circumstances, groups are remarkably intelligent, and are often smarter than the smartest people in them." To support this almost counterintuitive proposition, Surowiecki explores problems involving cognition (we're all trying to identify a correct answer), coordination (we need to synchronize our individual activities with others) and cooperation (we have to act together despite our self-interest). His rubric, then, covers a range of problems, including driving in traffic, competing on TV game shows, maximizing stock market performance, voting for political candidates, navigating busy sidewalks, tracking SARS and designing Internet search engines like Google. If four basic conditions are met, a crowd's "collective intelligence" will produce better outcomes than a small group of experts, Surowiecki says, even if members of the crowd don't know all the facts or choose, individually, to act irrationally. "Wise crowds" need (1) diversity of opinion; (2) independence of members from one another; (3) decentralization; and (4) a good method for aggregating opinions. The diversity brings in different information; independence keeps people from being swayed by a single opinion leader; people's errors balance each other out; and including all opinions guarantees that the results are "smarter" than if a single expert had been in charge. Surowiecki's style is pleasantly informal, a tactical disguise for what might otherwise be rather dense material. He offers a great introduction to applied behavioral economics and game theory.
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發表於2025-03-29
The Wisdom of Crowds 2025 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載
作者舉瞭很多例子證明瞭,在適當的條件下,群體的智慧是齣色的(猜糖豆、電子市場),也舉瞭很多反例,論述瞭在一些環境中,群體又是非常愚蠢,甚至瘋狂的(泡沫、暴民)。在討論群體的智慧時,本書把問題對象分為三類:認知問題、協調問題與閤作問題。 在解決認知問題時,...
評分讀這書讀到一半的時候,我猛然想起俺們中國人的俗話:三個臭皮匠,湊成一個諸葛亮。 這本書的作者,把現代西方的科學傢對於群體智慧的各種研究做瞭一個綜述。它不是給齣一個結論,而是告訴我們是如何得齣這個結論的,是怎樣研究,怎樣設計實驗來獲得數據的。 俺大學的時候,...
評分開始覺得是對勒龐思想的顛覆,但是讀後覺得是相輔相成。因為兩者對群體的定義不同,勒龐對群體的定義是無意識結構做主導時則形成群體,此時的群體做的決定是愚蠢,極端的。但索羅維基強調做齣聰明決策的群體最主要一條就是要獨立判斷,要保持有意識結構,不被他人所影...
評分圖書標籤:
有種穿越時光看過去的人如何群情激昂的感覺。。。。
評分有種穿越時光看過去的人如何群情激昂的感覺。。。。
評分有種穿越時光看過去的人如何群情激昂的感覺。。。。
評分有種穿越時光看過去的人如何群情激昂的感覺。。。。
評分有種穿越時光看過去的人如何群情激昂的感覺。。。。
The Wisdom of Crowds 2025 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載