Probability Primer
Part 1: Degrees of Belief
1. Introduction
2.Truth and Probability, F. P. Ramsey
3. Subjective Probability: Criticisms, Reflections and Problems, Henry E. Kyburg, Jr.
4. A Nonpragmatic Vindication of Probabilism, James Joyce
Part 2: Updating Degrees of Belief: Conditionalization and Reflection
5. Introduction
6. Why Conditionalize?, David Lewis
7. Probability Kinematics, Richard C. Jeffrey
8. Belief and the Will, Bas C. van Fraassen
9. Diachronic Rationality, Patrick Maher
10. Self-locating belief and the Sleeping Beauty problem, Adam Elga
11. Some Problems for Conditionalization and Reflection, Frank Arntzenius
12. When Betting Odds and Credences Come Apart: more worries for Dutch book arguments, Darren Bradley & Hannes Leitgeb
Part 3: Evidence and Probability: Bayesian Confirmation Theory
13. Introduction
14. Bayesian Versus non-Bayesian Approaches to Confirmation, Colin Howson & Peter Urbach
15. Why I am not a Bayesian, Clark Glymour
16. Symmetries and Asymmetries in Evidential Support, Ellery Eells & Branden Fitelson
Part 4: Evidence and Probability: Evidential Probability and Principles of Indifference
17. Introduction
18. Indifference: the Symmetries of Probability, Bas C. van Fraassen
19. Statistical and Inductive Probability, Rudolf Carnap
20. Is The Theory of Logical Probability Groundless?, D. C. Stove
Part 5: Physical Probability: The Frequency Theory
21. Introduction
22. The Definition of Probability, Richard von Mises
23. Mises Redux, Richard C. Jeffrey
24. Mises Redux -Redux: Fifteen Arguments Against Finite Frequentism, Alan Hájek
25. Fifteen Arguments Against Hypothetical Frequentism, Alan Hájek
Part 6: Physical Probability: Objective Chance and Propensities
26. Introduction
27. A Subjectivist’s Guide to Objective Chance, David Lewis
28. A Propensity Interpretation of Probability, Karl Popper
29. Objective Single-Case Probabilities and the Foundations of Statistics, Ronald N. Giere
30. Why Propensities Cannot be Probabilities, Paul W. Humphreys
31. David Lewis’s Humean Theory of Objective Chance, Barry Loewer
32. Resiliency, Propensities, and Causal Necessity, Brian Skyrms
Bibliography
Index
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