The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics

出版者:Wiley

作者:Richard C. Koo

页数:300

出版时间:2008-07-15

价格:USD 34.95

装帧:Hardcover

isbn号码:9780470823873

具体描述

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Japan's "Great Recession" lasted from approximately 1992 - 2007 and finally provided the economics profession with the necessary background to understand what actually happened during the US recession of the 1930s. The discoveries made, however, are so far-reaching that a large portion of economics literature will have to be modified to accommodate another half to the macro economic spectrum of possibilities that conventional theorists have overlooked. In particular, Japan's Great Recession showed that when faced with a massive fall in asset prices, companies typically jettison the conventional goal of profit maximization and move to minimize debt in order to restore their credit ratings. This shift in corporate priority, however, has huge theoretical as well as practical implications and opens up a whole new field of study. For example, the new insight can explain fully the precise mechanism of prolonged depression and liquidity trap which conventional economics - based on corporate profit maximization - has so far failed to offer as a convincing explanation. The author developed the idea of yin and yang business cycles where the conventional world of profit maximization is the yang and the world of balance sheet recession, where companies are minimizing debt, is the yin. Once so divided, many varied theories developed in macro economics since the 1930s can be nicely categorized into a single comprehensive theory, i.e., the Holy Grail of macro economics The policy implication of this new discovery is immense in that the conventional aversion to fiscal policy in favor of monetary policy will have to be completely reversed when the economy is in the yin phase. The theoretical implications are also immense in the sense that the economics profession will no longer have to rely so much on various rigidities to explain recessions that have become the standard practice within the so-called New Keynesian economics of the last twenty years.

作者简介

辜朝明，日本首屈一指的证券公司——野村证券旗下的研究机构野村综合研究所的首席经济学家，连续近10年被日本资本和金融市场人士选为最受信赖的经济学家之一，并为日本历届首相就如何应对日本经济与银行问题提供咨询。

进入野村证券之前，他作为经济学家任职于纽约联邦储备银行，获得过美国联邦储备委员会理事会博士会员的荣誉。他著述良多，同时也是早稻田大学客座教授，2001年被美国商业经济学会授予艾布拉姆逊奖。他同时还是“商业周刊在线”的专栏作家以及日本内阁防务战略会议的唯一一位非日本籍委员。

读后感

辜朝明提出了“资产负债表衰退”这个概念，并将日本衰退归纳为一个循环周期。 1.相比纯理性的利润最大化，在资不抵债的状况下会从根本上改变企业或个人的行为目标，转变为负债最小化，这种微观的正确行为，如果无数企业和个人加以执行，就会形成合成谬误，导致大家都陷入资产负...

从“资产负债表”衰退角度解读美国大萧条、日本消失20年和美国次贷危机的一本很好的科普读物～ 1 更深入的解读了“流动性陷阱”的原因。因为资产泡沫破灭导致私人部门的资产减少，从而使企业“技术性破产”，企业目标由追求利润最大化转向偿还负债。在此情况下，借贷需求衰减导...  

辜朝明提出了“资产负债表衰退”这个概念，并将日本衰退归纳为一个循环周期。 1.相比纯理性的利润最大化，在资不抵债的状况下会从根本上改变企业或个人的行为目标，转变为负债最小化，这种微观的正确行为，如果无数企业和个人加以执行，就会形成合成谬误，导致大家都陷入资产负...

用户评价

神作！神作！神作！

感觉这个论点只适用于日本

论点非常清晰。Asset decline causes asset < liabilities, forcing companies to pay down debt rather than borrow. During balance sheet recession, monetary policy will be counterproductive and the government has to embark on fiscal policy. 不足之处有二：1. 后几章有些啰嗦了；2. 没有讲明白政府要如何在经济复苏后减少债务。

独特的视角，聚焦于资产负债表领域，偿债优先，导致利率很低时，企业仍不借贷（债务最小化而非利润最大化）。独特的阴、阳两级的分析框架，“阴”中财政要刺激，“阳”要相反。和伯南克的货币理论dominates all某种程度上背道而驰。

现有框架下的新角度，但是相对对日本解释力强一点，书名取得还是有点大