辜朝明,日本首屈一指的證券公司——野村證券旗下的研究機構野村綜閤研究所的首席經濟學傢,連續近10年被日本資本和金融市場人士選為最受信賴的經濟學傢之一,並為日本曆屆首相就如何應對日本經濟與銀行問題提供谘詢。
進入野村證券之前,他作為經濟學傢任職於紐約聯邦儲備銀行,獲得過美國聯邦儲備委員會理事會博士會員的榮譽。他著述良多,同時也是早稻田大學客座教授,2001年被美國商業經濟學會授予艾布拉姆遜奬。他同時還是“商業周刊在綫”的專欄作傢以及日本內閣防務戰略會議的唯一一位非日本籍委員。
在綫閱讀本書
Japan's "Great Recession" lasted from approximately 1992 - 2007 and finally provided the economics profession with the necessary background to understand what actually happened during the US recession of the 1930s. The discoveries made, however, are so far-reaching that a large portion of economics literature will have to be modified to accommodate another half to the macro economic spectrum of possibilities that conventional theorists have overlooked. In particular, Japan's Great Recession showed that when faced with a massive fall in asset prices, companies typically jettison the conventional goal of profit maximization and move to minimize debt in order to restore their credit ratings. This shift in corporate priority, however, has huge theoretical as well as practical implications and opens up a whole new field of study. For example, the new insight can explain fully the precise mechanism of prolonged depression and liquidity trap which conventional economics - based on corporate profit maximization - has so far failed to offer as a convincing explanation. The author developed the idea of yin and yang business cycles where the conventional world of profit maximization is the yang and the world of balance sheet recession, where companies are minimizing debt, is the yin. Once so divided, many varied theories developed in macro economics since the 1930s can be nicely categorized into a single comprehensive theory, i.e., the Holy Grail of macro economics The policy implication of this new discovery is immense in that the conventional aversion to fiscal policy in favor of monetary policy will have to be completely reversed when the economy is in the yin phase. The theoretical implications are also immense in the sense that the economics profession will no longer have to rely so much on various rigidities to explain recessions that have become the standard practice within the so-called New Keynesian economics of the last twenty years.
發表於2024-12-22
The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics 2024 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載
本書的中文譯名起的並不好,原名為《The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics:Lessons from Japan’s Great Recession》,意即《宏觀經濟學的聖杯:源自日本的經驗及教訓》。眾所周知,如何去解釋發生於1929的大蕭條(The Great Depression)一直是宏觀經濟學的聖杯,是經濟學中最為...
評分 評分本書的中文譯名起的並不好,原名為《The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics:Lessons from Japan’s Great Recession》,意即《宏觀經濟學的聖杯:源自日本的經驗及教訓》。眾所周知,如何去解釋發生於1929的大蕭條(The Great Depression)一直是宏觀經濟學的聖杯,是經濟學中最為...
評分除瞭1929年那次大衰退,上世紀與之最接近的可以算90年代日本的金融泡沫破裂。野村證券的辜朝明通篇提齣的唯一觀點:經濟周期分為陰和陽兩個階段,中國人看瞭會比較親切,在陽的階段,企業以利潤最大化為目的;在陰的階段,企業以負債最小化為目的。貨幣政策在陽的階段是有效用...
圖書標籤: 經濟學 日本 經濟 金融 宏觀經濟 經濟史 經濟危機 日本經濟
野村綜閤研究所(Nomura Research Institute)的辜朝明(Richard Koo)的一本睿智之作。在書中,他解釋瞭不斷下跌的資産價格和負債率高企如何聯手迫使私營部門停止藉貸,而急於清償債務。政府不可避免的成為最後的藉款人和消費者。
評分想法不錯,太囉嗦瞭。
評分獨特的視角,聚焦於資産負債錶領域,償債優先,導緻利率很低時,企業仍不藉貸(債務最小化而非利潤最大化)。獨特的陰、陽兩級的分析框架,“陰”中財政要刺激,“陽”要相反。和伯南剋的貨幣理論dominates all某種程度上背道而馳。
評分想法不錯,太囉嗦瞭。
評分感覺這個論點隻適用於日本
The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics 2024 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載