Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge. Part literary essayist, part empiricist, part no-nonsense mathematical trader, he is currently the Dean's Professor in the Sciences of Uncertainty at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. The international bestseller Fooled by Randomness has been published in eighteen languages. Taleb lives (mostly) in New York.
Everyone wants to succeed in life. But what causes some of us to be more successful than others? Is it really down to skill and strategy - or something altogether more unpredictable? This book is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. It is all about luck: more precisely, how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the markets - we hear an entrepreneur has 'vision' or a trader is 'talented', but all too often their performance is down to chance rather than skill. It is only because we fail to understand probability that we continue to believe events are non-random, finding reasons where none exist. This irreverent bestseller has shattered the illusions of people around the world by teaching them how to recognize randomness. Now it can do the same for you.
發表於2024-09-29
Fooled by Randomness 2024 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載
沒接觸過概率論、統計學的人理應打超過三星以上,這再次體現瞭打分反映的是書與讀書人之間的關係,而非隻反映書的質量。 關於存活性偏差,可以概括為,同時在多個概率事件中發生,被當作具有普遍意義,從而産生認識上的偏差。 1舊有的事情因為存活性偏差可能不足以充當預測未...
評分關於數字與概率 我們遲早會瞭解概率終究是個用來看問題的定性手法,它是懷疑之子。數學主要是用來作為冥思的工具,而不是當作計算工具使用。真正的隨機現象看起來並不隨機。 討論概率問題時我不建議會計師參加。對會計師來說,數字就是數字。如果他對概率有興趣,早就投入...
評分 評分英國曆史學傢尼耶爾•弗格森(Niall Ferguson)在《未曾發生的曆史》(Visual History)一書中讓偶然性在曆史進程中翩翩起舞,他設想瞭一係列人類在某些重大時刻可能進入的曆史分叉小徑,比如沒有剋倫威爾的英國,獨立戰爭遭遇失敗的美國和愛爾蘭,二戰中嚮希特勒投降的英國...
圖書標籤: 統計學 英文原版 思維 英文原著 英文 stochastics 心理學 思想
學數理統計的孩子錶示對這種吹水耍嘴皮子的書欣賞不能。。。。orz。。
評分小概率事件隱含大趨勢
評分學數理統計的孩子錶示對這種吹水耍嘴皮子的書欣賞不能。。。。orz。。
評分幾乎沒有一章是廢話,閱讀還不枯燥。這是2014年讀過最好的書。它解釋股價是隨機性?那麼多的股神?為什麼有些人能預測等等。我真的喜歡這本書!
評分最喜歡裏麵的小故事
Fooled by Randomness 2024 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載