The Theory of Interest

出版者:New York: The Macmillan Co.

作者:Irving Fisher

页数:566

出版时间:1930

价格:USD 17.95

装帧:Paperback

isbn号码:9780879918644

具体描述

Fisher was one of America’s greatest mathematical economists. This book is still used a textbook and is an outstanding example of clearly written economic theory.

作者简介

Irving Fisher (1867-1947)

Irving Fisher was one of America's greatest mathematical economists and one of the clearest economics writers of all time. He had the intellect to use mathematics in virtually all his theories and the good sense to introduce it only after he had clearly explained the central principles in words. And he explained very well. Fisher's Theory of Interest is written so clearly that graduate economics students, who still study it today, often find that they can read—and understand—half the book in one sitting. With other writings in technical economics, this is unheard of.

Although he damaged his reputation by insisting throughout the Great Depression that recovery was imminent, contemporary economic models of interest and capital are based on Fisherian principles. Similarly, monetarism is founded on Fisher's principles of money and prices.

Fisher called interest "an index of a community's preference for a dollar of present [income] over a dollar of future income." He labeled his theory of interest the "impatience and opportunity" theory. Interest rates, Fisher postulated, result from the interaction of two forces: the "time preference" people have for capital now, and the investment opportunity principle (that income invested now will yield greater income in the future). This reasoning sounds very much like B鰄m-Bawerk's. Indeed, Fisher's Theory of Interest was dedicated to "the memory of John Rae and of Eugen von B鰄m-Bawerk, who laid the foundations upon which I have endeavored to build." But Fisher objected to B鰄m-Bawerk's idea that roundaboutness necessarily increases production. Instead, argued Fisher, at a positive interest rate, no one would ever choose a longer period unless it were more productive. So if we look at processes selected, we do find that longer periods are more productive. But, he argued, the length of the period does not in itself contribute to productivity.

Fisher defined capital as any asset that produces a flow of income over time. A flow of income, said Fisher, was distinct from the stock of capital that generated it. Capital and income are linked by the interest rate. Specifically, wrote Fisher, the value of capital is the present value of the flow of (net) income that the asset generates. This still is how economists think about capital and income today.

Fisher also opposed conventional income taxation and favored a tax on consumption to replace it. His position followed directly from his capital theory. When people save out of current income and then use the savings to invest in capital goods that yield income later, noted Fisher, they are being taxed on the income that they used to buy the capital goods and then are being taxed later on the income that the capital generates. This, he said, is double taxation of saving, and biases the tax code against saving and in favor of consumption. Fisher's reasoning is still used by economists today in making the case for consumption taxes.

Fisher was a pioneer in the construction and use of price indexes. James Tobin of Yale has called Fisher "the greatest expert of all time on index numbers." Indeed, from 1923 to 1936, his own Index Number Institute computed price indexes from all over the world.

Fisher was also the first economist to distinguish clearly between real and nominal interest rates. He pointed out that the real interest rate is equal to the nominal interest rate (the one we observe) minus the expected inflation rate. If the nominal interest rate is 12 percent, for example, but people expect inflation of 7 percent, then the real interest rate is only 5 percent. Again, this is still the basic understanding of modern economists.

Fisher laid out a more modern quantity theory of money (i.e., monetarism) than had been done before. He formulated his theory in terms of the Equation of Exchange, which says that MV = PT, where M equals the stock of money; V equals velocity, or how quickly money circulates in an economy; P equals the price level; and T equals the total volume of transactions. Again, modern economists still draw on this equation, although they usually use the version MV = Py, where y stands for real income.

The equation can be a very powerful tool for checking the consistency of one's thinking about the economy. Indeed, Reagan economist Beryl Sprinkel, who was Treasury undersecretary for monetary affairs in 1981, used this equation to criticize his colleague David Stockman's economic forecasts. Sprinkel pointed out that the only way Stockman's assumptions about the growth of income, the inflation rate, and the growth of the money supply could prove true would be if velocity increased faster than it ever had before. As it turned out, velocity actually declined.

Irving Fisher was born in upstate New York in 1867. He gained an eclectic education at Yale, studying science and philosophy. He published poetry and works on astronomy, mechanics, and geometry. But his greatest concentration was on mathematics and economics, the latter having no academic department at Yale. Nonetheless, Fisher earned the first Ph.D. in economics ever awarded by Yale. Upon graduation he stayed at Yale for the rest of his career.

A three-year struggle with tuberculosis beginning in 1898 left Fisher with a profound interest in health and hygiene. He took up vegetarianism and exercise and wrote a national best-seller titled How to Live: Rules for Healthful Living Based on Modern Science, whose value he demonstrated by living until age eighty. He campaigned for Prohibition, peace, and eugenics. He was founder or president of numerous associations and agencies, including the Econometric Society and the American Economic Association. He was also a successful inventor. In 1925 his firm, which held the patent on his "visible card index" system, merged with its main competitor to form what later was known as Remington Rand and then Sperry Rand. Although the merger made him very wealthy, he lost a large part of his wealth in the stock market crash of 1929.

Selected Works

The Nature of Capital and Income. 1906.

The Purchasing Power of Money. 1911.

The Purchasing Power of Money, new and revised edition, 1922.

The Rate of Interest. 1907.

The Theory of Interest. 1930.

"Dollar Stabilization." Encyclopedia Britannica. vol. XXX, pp. 852-853. 1921.

读后感

“人性不耐”一词出自美国经济学家费雪《利息理论》，费雪在该著作中借鉴了庞巴维克的时间偏好理论，引入了人性不耐论。人性不耐论说明即使人们已经有了高度的时间观念以及对未来的估计，人们还是倾向于“过好”现在而不是同样地为未来着想。 一、人性不耐的经济学含义 人性...  

看到张五常的推荐，买了费雪的《利息理论》来看，对于已经具备经济学基础的我来说，这本书并没有什么难度，看这本书更大的意义在于学习费雪严谨的理论研究方法，或许张五常也是这个意思吧。本书让人震撼的地方在于如同教科书般的严谨和逻辑，思维发散却没有天马行空，理论的文...  

看到张五常的推荐，买了费雪的《利息理论》来看，对于已经具备经济学基础的我来说，这本书并没有什么难度，看这本书更大的意义在于学习费雪严谨的理论研究方法，或许张五常也是这个意思吧。本书让人震撼的地方在于如同教科书般的严谨和逻辑，思维发散却没有天马行空，理论的文...  

以前从来没有意识到一个经济概念可以挖掘的如此透彻。利率，这个可能每个人都以为理解的概念，其包含如此广阔而深刻的含义，对经济概念的分析包含了对社会和人性的分析。不读此书者难以想象，而且这本书竟写于九十年前。 很可惜，第三理论中的风险在当时没有进一步论证，这种将...  

用户评价

这本书的阅读体验，需要的是时间和耐心，但回报绝对是丰厚的。它不像那些市面上流行的“理财速成指南”，它要求读者沉下心来，与作者一同进行一场智力上的“马拉松”。我必须承认，最初的几章确实有些枯燥，充斥着大量的定义和符号的引入，很容易让人产生放弃的念头。但是，一旦跨过了这个初期障碍，后面的内容便如抽丝剥茧般清晰起来。作者的行文风格非常克制，几乎没有使用任何煽动性的语言，一切都以论证为中心，这种冷静客观的态度，反而为读者建立了一种高度的信任感。我最喜欢的地方是，它教会了我如何批判性地看待市场上的各种金融产品，不再盲目相信宣传口号，而是能够从利率和时间价值的根本上进行剖析。这本书更像是一面镜子，映照出我们对金融世界认知的深度和广度，它不是教你如何赚钱，而是教你如何真正地“理解”金钱的运作规律。

这本书的魅力，恰恰在于它对“不变性”的执着探索。在瞬息万变的金融世界里，我们总是在追逐最新的热点和算法，但这本书却像一位沉静的智者，引导我们将目光投向那些亘古不变的经济学基石。作者对风险、时间偏好以及价值评估的阐述，其深度和广度都远超我预想。我尤其喜欢它对精算学基础的介绍部分，那种严密的推理链条，让人感受到一种逻辑上的极致美感。它不是简单地告诉你“多少钱等于多少钱”，而是告诉你“为什么是这个等价关系”，这种追根溯源的写作风格，极大地满足了我对事物本质的探究欲。阅读过程中，我常常会停下来，对照自己过去的一些投资决策，进行反思，发现许多当初自以为“直觉准确”的判断，其实都潜藏着对利率理论理解上的偏差。这本书的价值不在于提供快速致富的秘诀，而在于构建一个坚实的认知框架，让你的每一个金融决策都有理论可依。

这本《The Theory of Interest》的阅读体验，简直就像是走进了知识的迷宫，但幸运的是，作者提供了清晰的地图。初读时，我被那些复杂的公式和严谨的逻辑深深吸引，它不仅仅是对利率概念的简单阐述，更像是一次对时间价值的哲学探讨。书中的案例分析深入浅出，即便是像我这样背景略显薄弱的读者，也能逐步跟上作者的思维步伐。特别是关于复利效应的章节，作者没有满足于教科书式的解释，而是通过历史的视角，展示了这一理论在不同经济体中的演变和实际影响，让人不禁拍案叫绝。我特别欣赏作者在保持学术严谨性的同时，还能巧妙地融入一些富有启发性的思考，例如，如何平衡短期收益与长期风险的考量。读完之后，我对金融市场的许多看似玄奥的现象都有了更清晰的认识，感觉自己的“金融智商”得到了显著提升。这本书的排版和索引设计也颇为用心，查找资料时非常便捷，足见出版方的专业态度。这本书无疑是为那些渴望深入理解金融核心机制的读者量身定做的一件珍品。

我对这类书籍通常抱持着一种审慎的态度，总担心内容会陷入陈旧和脱节。然而，《The Theory of Interest》展现出一种惊人的生命力。它不仅扎实地梳理了自古典时期以来的经典理论，更难能可贵的是，它似乎预见到了一些未来金融发展的趋势。在探讨期限结构模型时，作者引入了一些现代计量经济学的视角，使得即便是看似古老的理论，也焕发出了新的光彩。书中的图表制作精良，数据翔实，这为抽象的理论提供了有力的视觉支撑。我曾尝试将书中的一些模型应用于我正在研究的一个长期养老金计划的模拟中，结果发现，它提供的分析工具异常精确和可靠。这让我确信，这本书并非停留在象牙塔中空谈，而是具有极强的实战指导意义。对于那些希望在复杂的金融工具设计和风险管理领域深耕的人来说，这本书无疑是一份不可或缺的“内功心法”。

说实话，拿到这本书的时候，我对它的期待值是比较高的，毕竟“理论”二字份量不轻。然而，阅读过程中的感受却是五味杂陈，它更像是一部精心打磨的学术专著，而非面向大众的科普读物。全书的论述过于依赖抽象的数学模型，虽然这保证了其理论的精确性，但对于实际操作层面的指导性略显不足。很多时候，我需要反复阅读同一段落，才能真正领会作者想要表达的微妙差别。比如，在介绍几种不同的贴现方法时，每种方法的适用场景和潜在缺陷都被阐述得极其细致，但如果能配上一些更具现实感的模拟情境，或许能让读者更好地把握何时选用哪种工具。我理解作者追求的是理论的普适性和完备性，但对于初学者而言，这种密集的理论轰炸确实构成了一道不小的门槛。它更像是一本供专业人士参考的工具书，而非一次轻松愉快的阅读旅程。这本书的价值毋庸置疑，但它的阅读难度也决定了它不会是人人都能轻松消化的“甜点”。

…… 开口跪，卧槽…………要一直跪到书的结尾吗？

…… 开口跪，卧槽…………要一直跪到书的结尾吗？

…… 开口跪，卧槽…………要一直跪到书的结尾吗？

…… 开口跪，卧槽…………要一直跪到书的结尾吗？

…… 开口跪，卧槽…………要一直跪到书的结尾吗？