Table of Contents:
i. Introduction/Mini-Summary
PART I: THE TROUBLE WITH PREDICTIONS: WHY SO MANY PREDICTIONS FAIL (AS SEEN THROUGH THE EYES OF THE ECONOMY)
1. The Trouble with Predicting the Economy
2. The Complicating Factors
A Brief Digression into the Field of Meteorology (A Bright Spot in the World of Forecasting)
3. The Statistical Solution (and its Problems)
4. Biased Thinking
5. A Case Study in Failed Prediction-Making: The Great Recession
a. Endless Optimism in the Price of Real Estate
b. The Folly of the Ratings Agencies
c. Leveraged to High Heaven
d. The Government’s Failed Forecast of the Great Recession
e. Not Everyone Got the Great Recession Wrong (A Prelude to Part II)
PART II: TOWARDS BETTER PREDICTION-MAKING
Section 1: Strategies to Help Us with Our Predictions
6. The Bayesian Approach
7. Hedgehogs and Foxes: Be Foxy
Section 2: Applying the Prediction Strategies to Different Fields
8. Predicting the Stock Market
9. Predicting Climate Change
10. Predicting Terrorism
11. Conclusion
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