Alan Greenspan was born in 1926 and reared in the Washington Heights neighborhood of New York City. After studying the clarinet at Juilliard and working as a professional musician, he earned his B.A., M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from New York University. In 1954, he cofounded the economic consulting firm Townsend-Greenspan & Co. From 1974 to 1977, he served as chair of the Council of Economic Advisors under President Gerald Ford. In 1987, President Ronald Reagan appointed him chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, a position he held until his retirement in 2006.
Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. No one with any meaningful role in economic decision making in the world saw beforehand the storm for what it was. How had our models so utterly failed us?
To answer this question, Alan Greenspan embarked on a rigorous and far-reaching multiyear examination of how Homo economicus predicts the economic future, and how it can predict it better. Economic risk is a fact of life in every realm, from home to business to government at all levels. Whether we're conscious of it or not, we make wagers on the future virtually every day, one way or another. Very often, however, we're steering by out-of-date maps, when we're not driven by factors entirely beyond our conscious control.
The Map and the Territory is nothing less than an effort to update our forecasting conceptual grid using twenty-first-century technologies. It integrates the history of economic prediction, the new work of behavioral economists, and the fruits of the author's own remarkable career to offer a thrillingly lucid and empirically based grounding in what we can know about economic forecasting and what we can't. The book explores how culture is and isn't destiny and probes what we can predict about the world's biggest looming challenges, from debt and the reform of the welfare state to our competition with China to natural disasters in an age of global warming.
No map is the territory, but Greenspan's approach, grounded in his trademark rigor, wisdom, and unprecedented context, ensures that this particular map will assist in safe journeys down many different roads, traveled by individuals, businesses, and the state.
發表於2024-07-01
The Map and the Territory 2024 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載
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評分昨天在傢裏整理舊衣服,理齣許許多多,很多衣服都是很新很新的,有些當時買的時候還相當貴,但是還是扔瞭,因為已經完全OUT瞭! 《緋聞女孩》裏BLAIR說過,有2樣東西,女人永遠不能碰,過季的衣服和前男友。 當時是為什麼會買這些衣服的呢,因為看淘寶模特穿的那麼好看,於是...
評分最近特彆巧閤,我閱讀的幾本書籍都是圍繞預測這個問題進行展開,有關於金融和國際政治格局的近期和遠期預測,還有前美聯儲主席格林斯潘先生在《動蕩的世界》一書中關於08年金融危機預測失誤案例的研究與反思。與之前幾本書作者的學者身份不同,格林斯潘不僅僅是一位經濟學傢,...
評分如果翻閱美國經濟政策的曆史,人們一定會將美聯儲作為一個至關重要的籌碼,而對於掌管美聯儲的“管傢”來說又是一個繞不過去的人物。美國猶太人艾倫·格林斯潘的名字與美聯儲牢牢綁定在一起,而對於他的評價卻又呈現兩極分化的局麵。 一方麵,贊成的人會覺得美國經濟能夠...
圖書標籤: 金融 Alan_Greenspan 經濟 傳記 經濟史 economics Greenspan Finance&Economics
對於我這樣的經濟學layman來說這本書的各章節講的主題都很大,很科普。當然還是很多人由於不喜歡Greenspan本人而不喜歡本書。
評分kinda dry, nothing innovative yet
評分不論學瞭多少經濟理論,也不論格老是否有推卸責任的嫌疑(比如把次貸危機的起源部分歸咎於發展中國傢信貸不足儲蓄率上升從而驅使利率下降),如本迴憶錄類似的書都是一定要讀的。這些執牛耳者所觀察的事,對理論高屋建瓴得分析,製定政策的過程,到危機過後的反省,是宏觀經濟最好的應用和思考。正如關於屋大維的奧古斯都的精準評論,“站在權利巔峰的人更能看到文明的力量”。
評分一個當年的頭牌對妓院及其繼任者作齣的深刻剖析和控訴。或者說是一個退休老乾部說瞭些人話真話。隻是不明白這書的標題和內容啥關係。
評分一個當年的頭牌對妓院及其繼任者作齣的深刻剖析和控訴。或者說是一個退休老乾部說瞭些人話真話。隻是不明白這書的標題和內容啥關係。
The Map and the Territory 2024 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載