The Drunkard's Walk

Leonard Mlodinow was born in Chicago, Illinois, received his PhD in theoretical physics from the University of California at Berkeley, and is the author of five best-sellers. His book The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules our Lives was a New York Times Bestseller, Editor's Choice, and Notable Book of the Year, and was short-listed for the Royal Society book award. His book Subliminal won the PEN/Wilson award for literary science writing. His other books include two co-authored with physicist Stephen Hawking -- A Briefer History of Time, and The Grand Design. In addition to his books and research articles, he has taught at Caltech, written for the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and Forbes magazine, among other publications, and for television series such as McGyver and Star Trek: the Next Generation. www.leonardmlodinow.com

出版者:Pantheon

作者:Leonard Mlodinow

页数:272

出版时间:2008-5-13

价格:GBP 15.93

装帧:Hardcover

isbn号码:9780375424045

图书标签:概率统计统计学概率statistics思维心理学统计数学

In this irreverent and illuminating book, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, change, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious cases, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance.

The rise and fall of your favorite movie star of the most reviled CEO--in fact, of all our destinies--reflects as much as planning and innate abilities. Even the legendary Roger Maris, who beat Babe Ruth's single-season home run record, was in all likelihood not great but just lucky. And it might be shocking to realize that you are twice as likely to be killed in a car accident on your way to buying a lottery ticket than you are to win the lottery.

How could it have happened that a wine was given five out of five stars, the highest rating, in one journal and in another it was called the worst wine of the decade? Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how wine ratings, school grades, political polls, and many other things in daily life are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of change and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives fresh insight into what is really meaningful and how we can make decisions based on a deeper truth. From the classroom to the courtroom, from financial markets to supermarkets, from the doctor's office to the Oval Office, Mlodinow's insights will intrigue, awe, and inspire.

Offering readers not only a tour of randomness, chance, and probability but also a new way of looking at the world, this original, unexpected journey reminds us that much in our lives is about as predictable as the steps of a stumbling man fresh from a night at the bar.

读后感

一直以来都非常讨厌结果科学，这本书和《光环效应》一样是反对结果科学的杰作。然而角度却完全不同，《光环效应》的角度更宏观一些，而这本书则更具说服力，对随机性和概率的解释拥有坚实的数学基础，这本书可以算是“读好书节省时间”的代表了。

所谓醉汉的脚步，是一个用来描述随机运动的数学术语。作者Leonard Mlodinow以此命名其书，是给读者一个直观冲击：生活中的很多事情，如同宿醉者的脚步一般难以预测。写作此书，也是为了在研究随机性的学术圈和普罗大众之间搭起一座桥梁，那些被学术精英们用来研究和理解醉汉的...  

杜克大学有两名学生，在高数考试前一天晚上跑到另一个州去参加通宵party。第二天赶到学校的时候，考试已经结束了。他俩向教授解释说，因为有一个车胎没气了才半路抛锚的，希望教授能给补考的机会。 教授很爽快地答应了，并额外出了一份卷子，第二天让两个人分别在两间教室里考...  

读书笔记 - 文字摘录地址：http://book.douban.com/annotation/19550698/ 芝诺悖论 古希腊数学家芝诺（Zeno of Elea）提出的一系列关于运动的不可分性的哲学悖论。这些悖论由于被记录在亚里士多德的《物理学》一书中而为后人所知。芝诺提出这些悖论是为了支持他老师巴门尼德...  

用户评价

顺着历史脉络梳理了自己常常倏地跳出狂外的不切实际，解惑，自省。

无聊到令人发指，又看一遍，而且是不知道何处来的电子版

这本书里说的知识可能简单了一点，但其例子和文笔都无比精彩，发人身省。

history of randomness... it's not bad. but not my area of interest. read about half of it

history of randomness... it's not bad. but not my area of interest. read about half of it