Leonard Mlodinow was born in Chicago, Illinois, received his PhD in theoretical physics from the University of California at Berkeley, and is the author of five best-sellers. His book The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules our Lives was a New York Times Bestseller, Editor's Choice, and Notable Book of the Year, and was short-listed for the Royal Society book award. His book Subliminal won the PEN/Wilson award for literary science writing. His other books include two co-authored with physicist Stephen Hawking -- A Briefer History of Time, and The Grand Design. In addition to his books and research articles, he has taught at Caltech, written for the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and Forbes magazine, among other publications, and for television series such as McGyver and Star Trek: the Next Generation. www.leonardmlodinow.com
In this irreverent and illuminating book, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, change, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious cases, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance.
The rise and fall of your favorite movie star of the most reviled CEO--in fact, of all our destinies--reflects as much as planning and innate abilities. Even the legendary Roger Maris, who beat Babe Ruth's single-season home run record, was in all likelihood not great but just lucky. And it might be shocking to realize that you are twice as likely to be killed in a car accident on your way to buying a lottery ticket than you are to win the lottery.
How could it have happened that a wine was given five out of five stars, the highest rating, in one journal and in another it was called the worst wine of the decade? Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how wine ratings, school grades, political polls, and many other things in daily life are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of change and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives fresh insight into what is really meaningful and how we can make decisions based on a deeper truth. From the classroom to the courtroom, from financial markets to supermarkets, from the doctor's office to the Oval Office, Mlodinow's insights will intrigue, awe, and inspire.
Offering readers not only a tour of randomness, chance, and probability but also a new way of looking at the world, this original, unexpected journey reminds us that much in our lives is about as predictable as the steps of a stumbling man fresh from a night at the bar.
發表於2025-02-02
The Drunkard's Walk 2025 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載
“心理學發現,就成功而言,麵對睏難毫不退縮的品質,至少與天分同等重要。” 十年規則:多數事情,要取得相當成功,至少需要十年的刻苦,實踐和奮鬥。勤奮、機遇、天分同等重要。 IBM 先驅,Thomas Watson:要想成功,就把你的失敗速度加倍。 能力與成功直接並非等號,偶然性...
評分 評分正如這本書的副標題所說的,How Randomness Rules Our Lives,書裏主要闡述的是如何認識隨機性對我們生活的影響。 各章節的筆記見:http://book.douban.com/annotation/19391977/ 作者從曆史發展的角度講述瞭人們一步步認識隨機性,並由此建立瞭概率論和統計方法的過程。書中...
評分 評分除瞭介紹基本統計和概率的概念,還有關於專傢的人物介紹,滿有趣的。 人物描述都非常的生動,比如,從前的學習,隻知道Fisher創立瞭好多tests, 現在,這些專傢不再僅僅是一些枯燥的名字,更是有血肉的人瞭。 統計基本概念方麵,我想這本書是除瞭課本以外,講的最好的瞭。而且...
圖書標籤: 概率統計 統計學 概率 statistics 思維 心理學 統計 數學
Randomness VS Necessity. 事情的發生更多是因為能力還是運氣?
評分作者是牛人,書質量也很好。這本科普作品基本上就是幫助人們消除各種謬誤的,很多錶麵看上去理所當然的事其實完全不是那麼迴事,而一些錶麵看上去不正常的事反而存在較優的理解方法,關鍵是要對數據科學有正確的認識。本書的難度不高,沒有枯燥的數學公式,有的是大量的曆史故事和實際例子,所以作為入門級的課外讀物是極好的,我如果有孩子一定會讓他讀的。對瞭,最後一章是反對決定論的,雖然此書更多是將社會層麵的事,但正好和我最近關注的反基因決定論、反環境決定論和反基因-環境決定論相聯係,果然復雜(動態網絡)係統纔是最有苗頭的方嚮呀,哈哈哈。
評分看到結尾略微感動。覺得自己的命挺好的瞭。概率論入門書,夾帶人生道理。
評分太不適閤摸魚看瞭,在研究室憋笑好痛苦…………其他人以為我看論文看到笑場,關心患者的目光.jpg/(ㄒoㄒ)/
評分從前沒好好學過概率統計的人讀後錶示受益非淺
The Drunkard's Walk 2025 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載