Leonard Mlodinow was born in Chicago, Illinois, received his PhD in theoretical physics from the University of California at Berkeley, and is the author of five best-sellers. His book The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules our Lives was a New York Times Bestseller, Editor's Choice, and Notable Book of the Year, and was short-listed for the Royal Society book award. His book Subliminal won the PEN/Wilson award for literary science writing. His other books include two co-authored with physicist Stephen Hawking -- A Briefer History of Time, and The Grand Design. In addition to his books and research articles, he has taught at Caltech, written for the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and Forbes magazine, among other publications, and for television series such as McGyver and Star Trek: the Next Generation. www.leonardmlodinow.com
In this irreverent and illuminating book, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, change, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious cases, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance.
The rise and fall of your favorite movie star of the most reviled CEO--in fact, of all our destinies--reflects as much as planning and innate abilities. Even the legendary Roger Maris, who beat Babe Ruth's single-season home run record, was in all likelihood not great but just lucky. And it might be shocking to realize that you are twice as likely to be killed in a car accident on your way to buying a lottery ticket than you are to win the lottery.
How could it have happened that a wine was given five out of five stars, the highest rating, in one journal and in another it was called the worst wine of the decade? Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how wine ratings, school grades, political polls, and many other things in daily life are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of change and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives fresh insight into what is really meaningful and how we can make decisions based on a deeper truth. From the classroom to the courtroom, from financial markets to supermarkets, from the doctor's office to the Oval Office, Mlodinow's insights will intrigue, awe, and inspire.
Offering readers not only a tour of randomness, chance, and probability but also a new way of looking at the world, this original, unexpected journey reminds us that much in our lives is about as predictable as the steps of a stumbling man fresh from a night at the bar.
發表於2024-05-19
The Drunkard's Walk 2024 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載
正如這本書的副標題所說的,How Randomness Rules Our Lives,書裏主要闡述的是如何認識隨機性對我們生活的影響。 各章節的筆記見:http://book.douban.com/annotation/19391977/ 作者從曆史發展的角度講述瞭人們一步步認識隨機性,並由此建立瞭概率論和統計方法的過程。書中...
評分“心理學發現,就成功而言,麵對睏難毫不退縮的品質,至少與天分同等重要。” 十年規則:多數事情,要取得相當成功,至少需要十年的刻苦,實踐和奮鬥。勤奮、機遇、天分同等重要。 IBM 先驅,Thomas Watson:要想成功,就把你的失敗速度加倍。 能力與成功直接並非等號,偶然性...
評分這本書還是幾年前在大學裏麵看的,卻一直記得很清楚,印象深刻。 作者用幽默的筆調從概率的角度,為我們分析瞭為什麼有時候你努力瞭卻還是不成功(0如果成功是-----)。 為什麼呢?因為一件事情要發展到最後一步,即他的結果,是由許多因素影響的。往往我們隻看到瞭我們可控...
評分一直以來都非常討厭結果科學,這本書和《光環效應》一樣是反對結果科學的傑作。然而角度卻完全不同,《光環效應》的角度更宏觀一些,而這本書則更具說服力,對隨機性和概率的解釋擁有堅實的數學基礎,這本書可以算是“讀好書節省時間”的代錶瞭。
評分圖書標籤: 概率統計 統計學 概率 statistics 思維 心理學 統計 數學
Not bad
評分關於概率統計的曆史科普故事,文字很好讀。2012.7.1-2012.7.9,8h27min。
評分讀得有點吃力,很多數學和統計學內容要動腦子,期待讀第二遍。
評分A great book that ends on a sober note.
評分神書
The Drunkard's Walk 2024 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載