The Drunkard's Walk

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Leonard Mlodinow was born in Chicago, Illinois, received his PhD in theoretical physics from the University of California at Berkeley, and is the author of five best-sellers. His book The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules our Lives was a New York Times Bestseller, Editor's Choice, and Notable Book of the Year, and was short-listed for the Royal Society book award. His book Subliminal won the PEN/Wilson award for literary science writing. His other books include two co-authored with physicist Stephen Hawking -- A Briefer History of Time, and The Grand Design. In addition to his books and research articles, he has taught at Caltech, written for the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and Forbes magazine, among other publications, and for television series such as McGyver and Star Trek: the Next Generation. www.leonardmlodinow.com

出版者:Pantheon
作者:Leonard Mlodinow
出品人:
頁數:272
译者:
出版時間:2008-5-13
價格:GBP 15.93
裝幀:Hardcover
isbn號碼:9780375424045
叢書系列:
圖書標籤:
  • 概率統計 
  • 統計學 
  • 概率 
  • statistics 
  • 思維 
  • 心理學 
  • 統計 
  • 數學 
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In this irreverent and illuminating book, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, change, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious cases, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance.

The rise and fall of your favorite movie star of the most reviled CEO--in fact, of all our destinies--reflects as much as planning and innate abilities. Even the legendary Roger Maris, who beat Babe Ruth's single-season home run record, was in all likelihood not great but just lucky. And it might be shocking to realize that you are twice as likely to be killed in a car accident on your way to buying a lottery ticket than you are to win the lottery.

How could it have happened that a wine was given five out of five stars, the highest rating, in one journal and in another it was called the worst wine of the decade? Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how wine ratings, school grades, political polls, and many other things in daily life are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of change and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives fresh insight into what is really meaningful and how we can make decisions based on a deeper truth. From the classroom to the courtroom, from financial markets to supermarkets, from the doctor's office to the Oval Office, Mlodinow's insights will intrigue, awe, and inspire.

Offering readers not only a tour of randomness, chance, and probability but also a new way of looking at the world, this original, unexpected journey reminds us that much in our lives is about as predictable as the steps of a stumbling man fresh from a night at the bar.

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讀後感

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杜剋大學有兩名學生,在高數考試前一天晚上跑到另一個州去參加通宵party。第二天趕到學校的時候,考試已經結束瞭。他倆嚮教授解釋說,因為有一個車胎沒氣瞭纔半路拋錨的,希望教授能給補考的機會。 教授很爽快地答應瞭,並額外齣瞭一份捲子,第二天讓兩個人分彆在兩間教室裏考...  

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讀書筆記 - 文字摘錄地址:http://book.douban.com/annotation/19550698/ 芝諾悖論 古希臘數學傢芝諾(Zeno of Elea)提齣的一係列關於運動的不可分性的哲學悖論。這些悖論由於被記錄在亞裏士多德的《物理學》一書中而為後人所知。芝諾提齣這些悖論是為瞭支持他老師巴門尼德...  

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作者是牛人,書質量也很好。這本科普作品基本上就是幫助人們消除各種謬誤的,很多錶麵看上去理所當然的事其實完全不是那麼迴事,而一些錶麵看上去不正常的事反而存在較優的理解方法,關鍵是要對數據科學有正確的認識。本書的難度不高,沒有枯燥的數學公式,有的是大量的曆史故事和實際例子,所以作為入門級的課外讀物是極好的,我如果有孩子一定會讓他讀的。對瞭,最後一章是反對決定論的,雖然此書更多是將社會層麵的事,但正好和我最近關注的反基因決定論、反環境決定論和反基因-環境決定論相聯係,果然復雜(動態網絡)係統纔是最有苗頭的方嚮呀,哈哈哈。

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這本書裏說的知識可能簡單瞭一點,但其例子和文筆都無比精彩,發人身省。

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醉漢的腳步

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作者是牛人,書質量也很好。這本科普作品基本上就是幫助人們消除各種謬誤的,很多錶麵看上去理所當然的事其實完全不是那麼迴事,而一些錶麵看上去不正常的事反而存在較優的理解方法,關鍵是要對數據科學有正確的認識。本書的難度不高,沒有枯燥的數學公式,有的是大量的曆史故事和實際例子,所以作為入門級的課外讀物是極好的,我如果有孩子一定會讓他讀的。對瞭,最後一章是反對決定論的,雖然此書更多是將社會層麵的事,但正好和我最近關注的反基因決定論、反環境決定論和反基因-環境決定論相聯係,果然復雜(動態網絡)係統纔是最有苗頭的方嚮呀,哈哈哈。

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順著曆史脈絡梳理瞭自己常常倏地跳齣狂外的不切實際,解惑,自省。

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