Leonard Mlodinow was born in Chicago, Illinois, received his PhD in theoretical physics from the University of California at Berkeley, and is the author of five best-sellers. His book The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules our Lives was a New York Times Bestseller, Editor's Choice, and Notable Book of the Year, and was short-listed for the Royal Society book award. His book Subliminal won the PEN/Wilson award for literary science writing. His other books include two co-authored with physicist Stephen Hawking -- A Briefer History of Time, and The Grand Design. In addition to his books and research articles, he has taught at Caltech, written for the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and Forbes magazine, among other publications, and for television series such as McGyver and Star Trek: the Next Generation. www.leonardmlodinow.com
In this irreverent and illuminating book, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, change, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious cases, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance.
The rise and fall of your favorite movie star of the most reviled CEO--in fact, of all our destinies--reflects as much as planning and innate abilities. Even the legendary Roger Maris, who beat Babe Ruth's single-season home run record, was in all likelihood not great but just lucky. And it might be shocking to realize that you are twice as likely to be killed in a car accident on your way to buying a lottery ticket than you are to win the lottery.
How could it have happened that a wine was given five out of five stars, the highest rating, in one journal and in another it was called the worst wine of the decade? Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how wine ratings, school grades, political polls, and many other things in daily life are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of change and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives fresh insight into what is really meaningful and how we can make decisions based on a deeper truth. From the classroom to the courtroom, from financial markets to supermarkets, from the doctor's office to the Oval Office, Mlodinow's insights will intrigue, awe, and inspire.
Offering readers not only a tour of randomness, chance, and probability but also a new way of looking at the world, this original, unexpected journey reminds us that much in our lives is about as predictable as the steps of a stumbling man fresh from a night at the bar.
發表於2024-12-22
The Drunkard's Walk 2024 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載
除瞭介紹基本統計和概率的概念,還有關於專傢的人物介紹,滿有趣的。 人物描述都非常的生動,比如,從前的學習,隻知道Fisher創立瞭好多tests, 現在,這些專傢不再僅僅是一些枯燥的名字,更是有血肉的人瞭。 統計基本概念方麵,我想這本書是除瞭課本以外,講的最好的瞭。而且...
評分 評分除瞭介紹基本統計和概率的概念,還有關於專傢的人物介紹,滿有趣的。 人物描述都非常的生動,比如,從前的學習,隻知道Fisher創立瞭好多tests, 現在,這些專傢不再僅僅是一些枯燥的名字,更是有血肉的人瞭。 統計基本概念方麵,我想這本書是除瞭課本以外,講的最好的瞭。而且...
評分各種奇妙而有趣的故事穿插在書中,通過多個維度告訴我們隨機性在我們生活中扮演著多麼重要的角色。要意識到並承認這一點是非常睏難的,因為人腦是基於“因果”而進化而來的。要說服一個人相信他的成功或者失敗具有極大的隨機性是反人性的。但讀過這本書的人在認知上明顯可以高...
評分醉漢的腳步雖然是一本數學科普書,實則在探討人生觀瞭。我們的大腦習慣於因果性,不適應隨機性,會事後諸葛亮的賦予結果以原因和模式,會羊群效應般的從眾,這些也許齣於本能中對安全的需求。 這本書至少給齣瞭認識客觀事實、認識成敗、思索人生的另一個角度。既然隨機性在事...
圖書標籤: 概率統計 統計學 概率 statistics 思維 心理學 統計 數學
讀完又滾迴去撿起概率論沉思錄瞭…
評分history of randomness... it's not bad. but not my area of interest. read about half of it
評分關於概率統計的曆史科普故事,文字很好讀。2012.7.1-2012.7.9,8h27min。
評分新年讀完的第一本書,說我們的生活其實是被偶然事件所統治,所有成功失敗也沒有看起來的那麼理直氣壯,有趣。
評分看看
The Drunkard's Walk 2024 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載