Leonard Mlodinow was born in Chicago, Illinois, received his PhD in theoretical physics from the University of California at Berkeley, and is the author of five best-sellers. His book The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules our Lives was a New York Times Bestseller, Editor's Choice, and Notable Book of the Year, and was short-listed for the Royal Society book award. His book Subliminal won the PEN/Wilson award for literary science writing. His other books include two co-authored with physicist Stephen Hawking -- A Briefer History of Time, and The Grand Design. In addition to his books and research articles, he has taught at Caltech, written for the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and Forbes magazine, among other publications, and for television series such as McGyver and Star Trek: the Next Generation. www.leonardmlodinow.com
In this irreverent and illuminating book, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, change, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious cases, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance.
The rise and fall of your favorite movie star of the most reviled CEO--in fact, of all our destinies--reflects as much as planning and innate abilities. Even the legendary Roger Maris, who beat Babe Ruth's single-season home run record, was in all likelihood not great but just lucky. And it might be shocking to realize that you are twice as likely to be killed in a car accident on your way to buying a lottery ticket than you are to win the lottery.
How could it have happened that a wine was given five out of five stars, the highest rating, in one journal and in another it was called the worst wine of the decade? Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how wine ratings, school grades, political polls, and many other things in daily life are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of change and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives fresh insight into what is really meaningful and how we can make decisions based on a deeper truth. From the classroom to the courtroom, from financial markets to supermarkets, from the doctor's office to the Oval Office, Mlodinow's insights will intrigue, awe, and inspire.
Offering readers not only a tour of randomness, chance, and probability but also a new way of looking at the world, this original, unexpected journey reminds us that much in our lives is about as predictable as the steps of a stumbling man fresh from a night at the bar.
發表於2024-11-22
The Drunkard's Walk 2024 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載
“心理學發現,就成功而言,麵對睏難毫不退縮的品質,至少與天分同等重要。” 十年規則:多數事情,要取得相當成功,至少需要十年的刻苦,實踐和奮鬥。勤奮、機遇、天分同等重要。 IBM 先驅,Thomas Watson:要想成功,就把你的失敗速度加倍。 能力與成功直接並非等號,偶然性...
評分 評分“心理學發現,就成功而言,麵對睏難毫不退縮的品質,至少與天分同等重要。” 十年規則:多數事情,要取得相當成功,至少需要十年的刻苦,實踐和奮鬥。勤奮、機遇、天分同等重要。 IBM 先驅,Thomas Watson:要想成功,就把你的失敗速度加倍。 能力與成功直接並非等號,偶然性...
評分除瞭介紹基本統計和概率的概念,還有關於專傢的人物介紹,滿有趣的。 人物描述都非常的生動,比如,從前的學習,隻知道Fisher創立瞭好多tests, 現在,這些專傢不再僅僅是一些枯燥的名字,更是有血肉的人瞭。 統計基本概念方麵,我想這本書是除瞭課本以外,講的最好的瞭。而且...
評分“你知道嗎?在去買彩票的路上因車禍身亡的可能性。是彩票中奬的可能性的兩倍!打破瞭貝比•魯斯本壘打紀錄的奇人羅傑•馬立斯,也非常可能僅僅是幸運而非偉大!一種葡萄酒被某本刊物給予瞭五顆星的最高評分,卻被另一本刊物評為一個年代中最差的葡萄酒……” 中考前在一...
圖書標籤: 概率統計 統計學 概率 statistics 思維 心理學 統計 數學
關於概率統計的科普讀物。文字流暢,故事精彩。
評分history of randomness... it's not bad. but not my area of interest. read about half of it
評分從前沒好好學過概率統計的人讀後錶示受益非淺
評分所謂製勝必有驚人之舉,那是因為即使是日常生活,事情的本來麵目常常是counterintuition的。“物理學已經嚮我們證明,草坪的綠色並不隻是綠色,石頭的硬並不隻是硬,而是一些很不同的東西”。概率,或者機遇,也是這麼個意思!這本書很好看!
評分Randomness VS Necessity. 事情的發生更多是因為能力還是運氣?
The Drunkard's Walk 2024 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載