PETER L. BERNSTEIN is President of Peter L. Bernstein, Inc., economic consultants to institutional advisors and corporations. His semimonthly analysis of the capital markets and the real economy, Economics and Portfolio Strategy, is read by managers and owners of investments totaling over one trillion dollars. Mr. Bernstein is the author of many articles in the professional and popular press, as well as six books in economics and finance, including the bestselling Capital Ideas: The Improbable Origins of Modern Wall Street. He is the coeditor of Investment Management (Wiley), and was the first editor of The Journal of Portfolio Management.
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Book Description
Human existence is based upon risk. This text charts the adventures of a group of thinkers who embarked on a voyage of intellectual discovery, transforming primeval superstition into the powerful tools of risk control employed today.
Amazon.com
With the stock market breaking records almost daily, leaving longtime market analysts shaking their heads and revising their forecasts, a study of the concept of risk seems quite timely. Peter Bernstein has written a comprehensive history of man's efforts to understand risk and probability, beginning with early gamblers in ancient Greece, continuing through the 17th-century French mathematicians Pascal and Fermat and up to modern chaos theory. Along the way he demonstrates that understanding risk underlies everything from game theory to bridge-building to winemaking.
From Publishers Weekly
Risk management, which assumes that future risks can be understood, measured and to some extent predicted, is the focus of this solid, thoroughgoing history. Probability theory, pioneered by 17th-century French mathematicians Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat, has made possible the design of great bridges, electric power utilities and insurance policies. The statistical sampling methods invented by dour Swiss scientist Jacob Bernoulli undergird diverse activities such as the testing of new drugs, stock-picking and wine tasting. Bernstein (Capital Ideas) animates his narrative with a colorful cast of risk-analyzers, including gambling addict Girolamo Cardano, 16th-century Italian physician to the Pope; and John Maynard Keynes, whose concerns over economic uncertainty compelled him to recommend an active, interventionist role for government. Bernstein also traces the development of business forecasting, game theory, insurance and derivatives, and surveys recent advances in risk forecasting made possible through chaos theory and by the development of neural networks.
From Library Journal
For several centuries, mathematics has been the language of the exact sciences. Only in the 20th century has mathematics become predominant in other fields, particularly economics and finance. In this book, Bernstein (Capital Ideas: The Improbable Origins of Modern Wall Street, LJ 12/91), head of an economic consulting firm, traces the development of probability theory from its beginnings in analyzing games of chance, through its application to statistical theory and insurance, up to its present use in developing investment strategies to control risk. He includes excellent sections on portfolio analysis and on investments in derivatives. Bernstein clearly describes the people, their work, and the events that have revolutionized the thinking on Wall Street. A worthwhile acquisition for business and math collections.
Harold D. Shane, Baruch Coll., CUNY
From Booklist
Bernstein's lively history chronicles a profound transformation in attitudes about the future. How one's fate changed from depending less on capricious outcomes and more on predictable ones forms the backbone of the narrative. His central characters are mathematicians who began pondering the statistics of gambling, or gamblers pondering the risks of gambling: about one sixteenth-century polymath, Girolamo Cardano, Bernstein writes that his "credentials as a gambling addict alone would justify his appearance in the history of risk," and that comment is typical of Bernstein's engaging presentation. Amid his recounting of the insights into probability from Pascal to Keynes, he touches on an array of modern fields in which risk analysis is crucial--insurance, commodities futures, stock markets, and that old standard, gambling. This cornucopia of biographical sketches, mathematical examples, and reflections on the nature of human expectations about the future faces little risk of idling in libraries; patrons of the business section might be keenest to read it.
Gilbert Taylor
From AudioFile
Jesse Boggs honed his expressive, laid-back vocal style narrating his own award-winning documentaries. Here, as reader and abridger, he goes a long way to clarify Bernstein's convoluted theory of risk management. His careful phrasing also brings into high relief the sweeping generalizations and questionable axioms that give pause to the analytic listener. Only in this careful frame of mind can one separate wheat from chaff and learn whatever this book has to teach. Y.R.
The Washington Post Book World, September 20, 1998
AGAINST THE GODS appeared in the "Washington Is Also Reading..." section of The Washington Post Book World. The book is described as, "A comprehensive history of man's efforts to understand risk and probability, from ancient gamblers in Greece to modern chaos theory."
Book Dimension
length: (cm)22.7 width:(cm)15.2
發表於2024-06-15
Against the Gods 2024 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載
英文齣版於1996年。中文版是去年齣的。這本書一般被歸入經濟管理、金融類圖書中。實際上我認為是統計學、概率論、博弈論三門學科的發展史。講述瞭從1200年前開始的統計學、概率論的曆史和1928年馮·諾依曼(書中譯為馮·紐曼)開創的博弈論的曆史。書中的故事大部分還算有趣。
評分每次看到《against the gods: The remarkable story of risk》齣現在我視綫範圍內,我就不經意的想起莫裏斯·剋萊因的《古今數學思想史》。 中譯本《與天為敵》實際上就是對於賭博或者概率一部簡潔而優雅的曆史智慧樹,在我心中的地位,不亞於上麵提到的剋萊因的《古今數學思...
評分 評分聽說清華版本的翻譯比較順暢,是這樣嗎? 請各位高人指點迷津,謝瞭!! 聽說清華版本的翻譯比較順暢,是這樣嗎? 請各位高人指點迷津,謝瞭!! 聽說清華版本的翻譯比較順暢,是這樣嗎? 請各位高人指點迷津,謝瞭!!
圖書標籤: 金融 投資 風險 經濟學 finance investment risk statistics
垃圾書
評分A basic financial history of measuring risk. Still, I believe diversification is a powerful idea. Chris
評分風險管理就是把我們對結果有所控製的領域最大化,而把我們完全不能控製結果和我們弄不清因果聯係的領域最小化。
評分當年很火,被送瞭一本。和中文版對比著看。把對內容的評分放到這,公平些。作者寫文章的能力感覺一般,沒有《The Worldly Philosophers 》寫得有套路,東拼西湊的感覺多些,有些八卦寫得極其枯燥不搭界。不過,稀而貴吧。所謂迴歸中值理論,也就是正態分布而已,隻是一種理論分布,沒啥好神化的。真正好使的還是從行為學分析上,知道容易在哪犯錯誤,拿到敲醒自己的鍾。
評分Risk evolution history.
Against the Gods 2024 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載