戴納西姆•尼古拉斯•塔勒布,絕大多數時候都是一名漫遊者,在地球各個角落的咖啡廳裏冥想。他早年曾經從商,目前是紐約大學特聘教授。曾在紐約和倫敦交易多種衍生性金融商品,也曾在芝加哥當過營業廳的獨立交易員。2001年2月正式成為衍生性金融商品交易戰略名人堂的一員。他的作品包括《隨機緻富的傻瓜》和《黑天鵝》,後者曾連續一年多列位《紐約時報》暢銷書榜,以31種語言齣版,是一本知識、社會和文化方麵的經典著作。
Selected by Amazon.com and The Financial Times as one of the best business books of the year, Fooled by Randomness is an instant classic. Already published in 14 languages, the book?s title has entered our vocabulary. After reading the excitement expressed below for Fooled by Randomness one realizes that its world-wide bestseller status is no random event. This book is about luck ? or more precisely how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. It is already a landmark work and its title has entered our vocabulary. In its second edition, Fooled by Randomness is now a cornerstone for anyone interested in random outcomes. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill ? the world of trading ? Fooled by Randomness is a captivating insight into one of the least understood factors of all our lives. Writting in an entertaining and narrative style, the author succeeds in tackling three major intellectual issues: the problem of induction, the survivorship biases, and our genetic unfitness to the modern word. In this second edition, Taleb manages to use stories and anecdotes to illustrate our overestimation of causality and the heuristics that make us view the world as far more explainable than it actually is. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the Goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.
發表於2024-12-23
Fooled by Randomness (Second Edition) 2024 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載
關於數字與概率 我們遲早會瞭解概率終究是個用來看問題的定性手法,它是懷疑之子。數學主要是用來作為冥思的工具,而不是當作計算工具使用。真正的隨機現象看起來並不隨機。 討論概率問題時我不建議會計師參加。對會計師來說,數字就是數字。如果他對概率有興趣,早就投入...
評分這本書用簡單的統計學概念有趣地解釋瞭許多常見的投資現象,其中最為核心的,是收益的不對稱與決策的非理性對長期投資的種種影響。在某種意義上,這些討論不僅對投資客有價值,也具有極強的哲學含義,可以在生活中的方方麵麵得到印證。 書中的一個核心問題是普遍存在的收益不...
評分如果一位投資者告訴你他認為開盤後美國股市上漲的可能性非常大,但是與此同時他卻又在大手做空美股指數,你會作何感想?恐怕不是當他騙子,就是當他瘋子。 不過你看完這本《隨機緻富的傻瓜》,就會重新認識此問題瞭,因為曾經齣現過上述行為的,恰是此書的作者納西姆·...
評分某同學嚮我推薦這本書的時候說,這是一本數學書,其中的內容有些晦澀難懂,需要花點功夫理解,但是最後還不失為一本對投資生涯有意義的書。於是我懷著敬畏之心開始瞭閱讀,可是我很快發現,與其說這是一本數學書,倒不如說這是本哲學書,而且是一本非常聰明的哲學書。 這位狂...
評分《隨機緻富的傻瓜》總體印象 這本書本來沒有打算開始看的,不過周日去書店捧瞭一堆書迴來路上老婆有點事情,我做在路邊颱階上隨手拿本書來翻看,當時又不能勾畫東西,隻好找本相對簡單的,結果就拿到瞭這本。 這本書基本與緻富無關,唯一引入這個詞匯,隻不過是因為作者是從事...
圖書標籤: 概率 經濟投資 方法論 randomness 經濟 Finance investment/finance fooled
吃力讀完,讀懂不到一半…
評分讀下來讓人難過,人類是追求確定性的生物,但是世界卻充滿瞭隨機性。作者也沒有,實際上可能沒人能有什麼可行的解決辦法。不過現實既然如此,就應該坦然接受。本書值得再讀,用以提醒自己。中文版翻譯的是英文第一版,英文版已有第二版。
評分Bad Writer....
評分吃力讀完,讀懂不到一半…
評分Bad Writer....
Fooled by Randomness (Second Edition) 2024 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載