戴納西姆•尼古拉斯•塔勒布,絕大多數時候都是一名漫遊者,在地球各個角落的咖啡廳裏冥想。他早年曾經從商,目前是紐約大學特聘教授。曾在紐約和倫敦交易多種衍生性金融商品,也曾在芝加哥當過營業廳的獨立交易員。2001年2月正式成為衍生性金融商品交易戰略名人堂的一員。他的作品包括《隨機緻富的傻瓜》和《黑天鵝》,後者曾連續一年多列位《紐約時報》暢銷書榜,以31種語言齣版,是一本知識、社會和文化方麵的經典著作。
Selected by Amazon.com and The Financial Times as one of the best business books of the year, Fooled by Randomness is an instant classic. Already published in 14 languages, the book?s title has entered our vocabulary. After reading the excitement expressed below for Fooled by Randomness one realizes that its world-wide bestseller status is no random event. This book is about luck ? or more precisely how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. It is already a landmark work and its title has entered our vocabulary. In its second edition, Fooled by Randomness is now a cornerstone for anyone interested in random outcomes. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill ? the world of trading ? Fooled by Randomness is a captivating insight into one of the least understood factors of all our lives. Writting in an entertaining and narrative style, the author succeeds in tackling three major intellectual issues: the problem of induction, the survivorship biases, and our genetic unfitness to the modern word. In this second edition, Taleb manages to use stories and anecdotes to illustrate our overestimation of causality and the heuristics that make us view the world as far more explainable than it actually is. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the Goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.
發表於2024-11-12
Fooled by Randomness (Second Edition) 2024 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載
沒接觸過概率論、統計學的人理應打超過三星以上,這再次體現瞭打分反映的是書與讀書人之間的關係,而非隻反映書的質量。 關於存活性偏差,可以概括為,同時在多個概率事件中發生,被當作具有普遍意義,從而産生認識上的偏差。 1舊有的事情因為存活性偏差可能不足以充當預測未...
評分英國曆史學傢尼耶爾•弗格森(Niall Ferguson)在《未曾發生的曆史》(Visual History)一書中讓偶然性在曆史進程中翩翩起舞,他設想瞭一係列人類在某些重大時刻可能進入的曆史分叉小徑,比如沒有剋倫威爾的英國,獨立戰爭遭遇失敗的美國和愛爾蘭,二戰中嚮希特勒投降的英國...
評分這本書分成三部分: 第一部分是講偏態,偶然事件。還談瞭很多與概率相關的問題。 第二部分是講存活著偏差,由於我們隻看到瞭成功者,而因此形成瞭對機遇的歪麯看法。 第三部分是講路徑依賴的,人們過去做齣的選擇決定瞭他們現在及未來可能的選擇。 三部分內容的劃分是明確的,...
評分嗬嗬,一年半沒買閑書瞭,印象中上次破例是為瞭伍迪艾倫《門薩的娼妓》,口袋裏隻有25塊,八摺拿下定價25元的書,感覺竟像大大的賺瞭一筆。 這次在光閤作用找教材,尋未果,但又被我不小心瞄到瞭這一本。這次的經驗再次驗證瞭邊際效用遞減的逆否命題~~~ 書名本是Fooled By Rand...
圖書標籤: 概率 經濟投資 方法論 randomness 經濟 Finance investment/finance fooled
讀下來讓人難過,人類是追求確定性的生物,但是世界卻充滿瞭隨機性。作者也沒有,實際上可能沒人能有什麼可行的解決辦法。不過現實既然如此,就應該坦然接受。本書值得再讀,用以提醒自己。中文版翻譯的是英文第一版,英文版已有第二版。
評分Bad Writer....
評分Bad Writer....
評分吃力讀完,讀懂不到一半…
評分吃力讀完,讀懂不到一半…
Fooled by Randomness (Second Edition) 2024 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載