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The Black Swan pdf epub mobi 著者簡介

Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, randomness, human error, probability, and the philosophy of knowledge. He managed to transform his interests into three successful careers, as a man of letters, businessman-trader-risk manager, and university professor. Although he spends most of his time as a flâneur, meditating in cafés across the planet, he is currently Distinguished Professor at New York University's Polytechnic Institute and Principal of Universa. His books Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan have been published in 31 languages. He is widely recognized as the foremost thinker on probability and uncertainty. Taleb lives mostly in New York.

The Black Swan pdf epub mobi 圖書描述

A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows in a playful way that Black Swan events explain almost everything about our world, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. In this second edition, Taleb has added a new essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.

*2nd Edition, With a new essay: "On Robustness and Fragility"

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發表於2024-05-28

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb的The Black Swan是一本關於不確定性和隨機性的書，全書充滿哲學的思辨和淺顯易懂的實例，從曆史、統計、人性、心理等角度深入淺齣的揭示瞭人類思維的誤區和成因所在，說明瞭“黑天鵝”的邏輯——你不知道的事比你知道的事更有意義。所謂"黑天鵝“事件...

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出版者:Random House Trade Paperbacks

作者:Nassim Nicholas Taleb

出品人:

頁數:480

譯者:

出版時間:2010-5-11

價格:USD 17.00

裝幀:Paperback

isbn號碼:9780812973815

叢書系列:

圖書標籤: 社會學金融思維哲學 Finance 風險管理英文原版經濟

The Black Swan 2024 pdf epub mobi 電子書下載

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The Black Swan pdf epub mobi 用戶評價

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和Fooled by Randomness比，這本書寫得長瞭一點，有點囉嗦 2019.12.11讀第二遍後記：一直想把這本書再讀一遍。但是再讀完一遍反而覺得沒那麼好瞭。很多思想來自彆的作者，又很囉嗦。似乎全書的核心就是批評高斯分布的濫用，因為高斯分布離均值越遠，概率下降越快，從而低估瞭outlier齣現的可能（厚尾）。當然更多的黑天鵝來自不知道的分布。這本書也沒有Fooled by Randomness寫得幽默。

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Thought-provoking indeed.

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washington university現任校長曾經推薦的。對probability的新的解讀，用語生動。

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I only bought this book to understand the jargon "black swan" mentioned in many works. This is an important book(because of its important idea), but it is too lengthy and a little tedious to some extent. It's better to learn this idea through some kind of book summary instead of plodding through the book itself.

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有點意思...不過也就那樣

The Black Swan 2024 pdf epub mobi 電子書下載