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The Theory That Would Not Die pdf epub mobi 著者簡介

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Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, "The Theory That Would Not Die" is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest scientific controversies of all time. Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years - at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, even breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II, and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA decoding to Homeland Security. "The Theory That Would Not Die" is a vivid account of the generations-long dispute over one of the greatest breakthroughs in the history of applied mathematics and statistics.

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發表於2024-12-31

The Theory That Would Not Die 2024 pdf epub mobi 電子書下載

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許多人都說這本書的專業度不夠，看來我以後還得研究研究數學。開頭說貝葉斯法則一言以蔽之，就是通過參考新的客觀信息，可以將我們的舊觀念改進為更好的觀念。並說，這是一個從experience，empirical，或者在信息不足或缺乏完善理論的情況下，做判斷的良好方法。也就是說，它...

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出版者:Yale University Press

作者:Sharon Bertsch McGrayne

出品人:

頁數:336

譯者:

出版時間:2011-5-17

價格:USD 27.50

裝幀:Hardcover

isbn號碼:9780300169690

叢書系列:

圖書標籤: 數學貝葉斯統計學概率曆史思維統計 Bayesian

The Theory That Would Not Die 2024 pdf epub mobi 電子書下載

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This is not a textbook and does not attempt to teach inferential techniques. Rather, McGrayne offers a very thorough, informative, and often entertaining discussion of the Bayesian perspective. Strongly recommended as it provides the theoretical underpinnings of the Bayesian perspective and shows how Bayesianism has been applied to real world.

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這本書的作者不是數學傢，因此有些問題講得不是很透徹，我甚至懷疑某些地方存在錯誤。例如她說算後驗概率時要進行迭代，即將算齣來的結果作為先驗概念再與likelyhood function相乘，Pirre Simon Laplace是這樣做的，而Data Analysis A Bayesian Tutorial在2.1節的末尾明確說這是一種Boot-strip的方法，隻能自欺欺人。

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It's about the history of the Baysian statistics. I enjoyed it. But I thought the book tried to hard to avoid any maths details, as if anybody who isn't a math lover would accidentally read this book. At places I really wish the author just put down an equation.

The Theory That Would Not Die 2024 pdf epub mobi 電子書下載