The Black Swan 2025 pdf epub mobi 电子书

☆☆☆☆☆
简体网页||繁体网页

The Black Swan 2025 pdf epub mobi 电子书著者简介

Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge, and he has led three high-profile careers around his ideas, as a man of letters, as a businessman-trader, and as a university professor. Although he spends most of his time as a flâneur, meditating in cafés across the planet, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute. His work has been published in thirty-three languages.

The Black Swan 电子书图书目录

下载链接在页面底部

下载链接1
下载链接2
下载链接3

facebook linkedin mastodon messenger pinterest reddit telegram twitter viber vkontakte whatsapp 复制链接

想要找书就要到本本书屋

onlinetoolsland.com

立刻按 ctrl+D收藏本页

你会得到大惊喜!!

发表于2025-04-03

The Black Swan 2025 pdf epub mobi 电子书

喜欢 The Black Swan 电子书的读者还喜欢

The Black Swan 电子书读后感

评分☆☆☆☆☆

『历史是由一系列稀有事件推动的』。这乍一看让人联想起被人民群众口诛笔伐的所谓精英主义，但你要仔细研究人类发展的历史，就会不得不折服于作者的论证。虽然上层建筑为了统治的需要，会通过教育向基层人民灌输什么『天才来源于人民』等诸如此类的概念作为安抚，但作者实际...

评分☆☆☆☆☆

写个读后感也有强迫症似得~不写老觉得这个事没干完... 这是我第一次看书时写了这么多注释~感觉不写个总结式的读后感日志~将来不方便回顾~ 以前曾有种想法~强迫自己每看完一本书然后写个读后感日志什么的~督促自己~ 但后来看的烂书实在太多~不少看过就扔真不值得一提~ 再花几个...

评分☆☆☆☆☆

这本书确实很好，大观点不错，许多小观点也值得细细思考，看了十几篇评论，大都没有反映出这本书的精华。 1. 黑天鹅现象，黑天鹅现象具有三个特点：不可预测性，影响重大，事后可解释。 2. 叙述谬误，我们在编造理由或者强大一种逻辑关系的情况下观察一系列事实，对事实的解...

评分☆☆☆☆☆

“蝴蝶扇动翅膀, 在远方形成了风暴”，这句混沌学的名言陈冠希一定深有体会。一次电脑故障，弄出这么大的事情。他一定很后悔去修电脑了，或者去那家修电脑了，而不是拍了那些照片。那些照片原是可以很严实地被隐藏着，隔绝着，象气球里的空气或埋在地下的煤气管道。只是偶然...

类似图书点击查看全场最低价

出版者:Random House

作者:[美] 纳西姆•尼古拉斯•塔勒布

出品人:

页数:366

译者:

出版时间:2007-4-17

价格:USD 30.00

装帧:Hardcover

isbn号码:9781400063512

丛书系列:

图书标签: 金融思维思想经济社会学投资经济学 finance

The Black Swan 2025 pdf epub mobi 电子书图书描述

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.

The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities.

We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”

For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.

Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory.

The Black Swan is a landmark book – itself a black swan.

The book also contains a 4-page glossary; 19 pages of notes; and, a 28-page bibliography in addition to an index.

The Black Swan 2025 pdf epub mobi 电子书

想要找书就要到本本书屋

onlinetoolsland.com

立刻按 ctrl+D收藏本页

你会得到大惊喜!!

The Black Swan 2025 pdf epub mobi 用户评价

评分☆☆☆☆☆

图书馆没座，遂抄过此书草草翻过。没有看出点在那里。

评分☆☆☆☆☆

2008年。枯燥晦涩，不堪卒读，业已花费不少心力，犹豫再三，归为sunk cost，终弃之。

评分☆☆☆☆☆

思考和科学最大的对手恐怕就是unknown unknown了。也是一个人需要时刻牢记时时反思，并且保持谦卑的原因。Taleb是一个傲慢又谦逊的人，是一个最善良的朋友，又是个自负的浑球。他藐视人，却对事与真理虔诚。应用层面上有启迪之处，更有趣的是Taleb是个哲学思考者。爸爸买了汉译本，似乎译得不好，流于“畅销书”译法了。其实诙谐反讽的行文风格也是看点之一。

评分☆☆☆☆☆

行文结构实在有点乱，用语和句法也不是很易懂，艰难的啃了一半都还没搞清楚整本书的逻辑。总体来说就是预测都是愚蠢的，一切都是不可知的，做好万全准备，比作无聊的预测要有用。另外，书里居然花了一章的时间去“鄙视”和笔者意见不一致的各个大家，着实没有大家之风啊。

评分☆☆☆☆☆

Common sense for any good historian (or history major). Dislike the writing style. The tone is very annoying.

The Black Swan 2025 pdf epub mobi 电子书