Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge, and he has led three high-profile careers around his ideas, as a man of letters, as a businessman-trader, and as a university professor. Although he spends most of his time as a flâneur, meditating in cafés across the planet, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute. His work has been published in thirty-three languages.
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.
The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities.
We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”
For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory.
The Black Swan is a landmark book – itself a black swan.
The book also contains a 4-page glossary; 19 pages of notes; and, a 28-page bibliography in addition to an index.
發表於2024-11-02
The Black Swan 2024 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載
這本書確實很好,大觀點不錯,許多小觀點也值得細細思考,看瞭十幾篇評論,大都沒有反映齣這本書的精華。 1. 黑天鵝現象,黑天鵝現象具有三個特點:不可預測性,影響重大,事後可解釋。 2. 敘述謬誤,我們在編造理由或者強大一種邏輯關係的情況下觀察一係列事實,對事實的解...
評分寫個讀後感也有強迫癥似得~不寫老覺得這個事沒乾完... 這是我第一次看書時寫瞭這麼多注釋~感覺不寫個總結式的讀後感日誌~將來不方便迴顧~ 以前曾有種想法~強迫自己每看完一本書然後寫個讀後感日誌什麼的~督促自己~ 但後來看的爛書實在太多~不少看過就扔真不值得一提~ 再花幾個...
評分Nassim Nicholas Taleb的The Black Swan是一本關於不確定性和隨機性的書,全書充滿哲學的思辨和淺顯易懂的實例,從曆史、統計、人性、心理等角度深入淺齣的揭示瞭人類思維的誤區和成因所在,說明瞭“黑天鵝”的邏輯——你不知道的事比你知道的事更有意義。 所謂"黑天鵝“事件...
評分我們預測30年後的社會保障赤字和石油價格,而沒有認識到我們連明年夏天的情況都預測不瞭,我們在政治經濟大事上的纍積預測錯誤是如此巨大,以至於我每次看到這些記錄時,都不得不掐一下自己以確定不是在做夢。令人吃驚的不是預測錯誤之大,而是我們對其毫無意識。在緻命性衝突...
評分在不確定的世界 讀書筆記之黑天鵝效應 題記:08年端午節迴傢的火車上看完瞭中信齣版社的《黑天鵝》,前半段震驚於作者的觀點,後半段則變成瞭霧裏看花,不明所以。迴到上海從淘寶上買到瞭颱灣版的《黑天鵝效...
圖書標籤: 金融 思維 思想 經濟 社會學 投資 經濟學 finance
思考和科學最大的對手恐怕就是unknown unknown瞭。也是一個人需要時刻牢記時時反思,並且保持謙卑的原因。Taleb是一個傲慢又謙遜的人,是一個最善良的朋友,又是個自負的渾球。他藐視人,卻對事與真理虔誠。應用層麵上有啓迪之處,更有趣的是Taleb是個哲學思考者。爸爸買瞭漢譯本,似乎譯得不好,流於“暢銷書”譯法瞭。其實詼諧反諷的行文風格也是看點之一。
評分2007年就齣版的一本書,為什麼有人說國外的評價很高,但閱讀起來並不那麼賞心悅目?我告訴你就是翻譯問題!強烈建議看原版好麼!英文版看得津津有味,不得不說太棒瞭!薇兒偶然看過中文版幾眼,那翻譯豈是一個爛字瞭得!!書中裏麵充滿瞭作者思辨式的哲學感悟和這種例子。確實是哲學、心理學、統計學和金融學的混閤體。好內容太多,但若一定要用簡潔的語言來總結的話,給我的感覺核心內容就是:“天機難測,淡定應對”。按照古人的說法就是,麵對不確定,要“卒然臨之而不驚,無故加之而不怒”。 人們總是因為未知而恐懼,Taleb說未來無法預測,所有的解釋都是事後諸葛亮,那麼我們該如何自處呢?在我看來,這本書最根本的觀點即是端正心態,把時間和精力花到該花的地方,彆枉費心機去預測未來,尤其是彆把所有的身傢性命押在上麵。
評分圖書館沒座,遂抄過此書草草翻過。沒有看齣點在那裏。
評分基本觀點激進,沒甚深刻的論證。竟然亞馬遜上也是好評一片,無語瞭
評分雖然書中的觀點有些還行,但是論述的過程實在是又臭又長又雜亂無序。。。如果寫到50頁到100頁的一個長paper已然綽綽有餘,搞這麼個大部頭實在是。。。作者writing skills不敢恭維。。。
The Black Swan 2024 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載