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The Black Swan pdf epub mobi 著者簡介

Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge, and he has led three high-profile careers around his ideas, as a man of letters, as a businessman-trader, and as a university professor. Although he spends most of his time as a flâneur, meditating in cafés across the planet, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute. His work has been published in thirty-three languages.

The Black Swan pdf epub mobi 圖書描述

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.

The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities.

We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”

For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.

Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory.

The Black Swan is a landmark book – itself a black swan.

The book also contains a 4-page glossary; 19 pages of notes; and, a 28-page bibliography in addition to an index.

The Black Swan 2024 pdf epub mobi 電子書下載

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發表於2024-11-21

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這本書確實很好，大觀點不錯，許多小觀點也值得細細思考，看瞭十幾篇評論，大都沒有反映齣這本書的精華。 1. 黑天鵝現象，黑天鵝現象具有三個特點：不可預測性，影響重大，事後可解釋。 2. 敘述謬誤，我們在編造理由或者強大一種邏輯關係的情況下觀察一係列事實，對事實的解...

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出版者:Random House

作者:[美] 納西姆•尼古拉斯•塔勒布

出品人:

頁數:366

譯者:

出版時間:2007-4-17

價格:USD 30.00

裝幀:Hardcover

isbn號碼:9781400063512

叢書系列:

圖書標籤: 金融思維思想經濟社會學投資經濟學 finance

The Black Swan 2024 pdf epub mobi 電子書下載

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The Black Swan pdf epub mobi 用戶評價

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行文結構實在有點亂，用語和句法也不是很易懂，艱難的啃瞭一半都還沒搞清楚整本書的邏輯。總體來說就是預測都是愚蠢的，一切都是不可知的，做好萬全準備，比作無聊的預測要有用。另外，書裏居然花瞭一章的時間去“鄙視”和筆者意見不一緻的各個大傢，著實沒有大傢之風啊。

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My whole life depends on the fragility of a fucking swan.

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Imagine someone with the erudition of Pico de la Mirandola, the skepticism of Montaigne, solid mathematical training, a restless globetrotter, polyglot, enjoyer of fine wines, specialist of financial derivatives, irrepressible reader, and irascible to the point of readily slapping a disciple.

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The Black Swan 2024 pdf epub mobi 電子書下載