The Black Swan 2025 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載


The Black Swan

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The Black Swan pdf epub mobi 著者簡介

Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge, and he has led three high-profile careers around his ideas, as a man of letters, as a businessman-trader, and as a university professor. Although he spends most of his time as a flâneur, meditating in cafés across the planet, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute. His work has been published in thirty-three languages.


The Black Swan pdf epub mobi 圖書描述

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.

The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities.

We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”

For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.

Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory.

The Black Swan is a landmark book – itself a black swan.

The book also contains a 4-page glossary; 19 pages of notes; and, a 28-page bibliography in addition to an index.

The Black Swan 2025 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載

The Black Swan pdf epub mobi 圖書目錄




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發表於2025-04-26

The Black Swan 2025 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載

The Black Swan 2025 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載

The Black Swan 2025 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載



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The Black Swan pdf epub mobi 讀後感

評分

作為一個數理統計專業並從事金融計量研究工作的人,我認為有必要評價一下這本書.當然我的評論可能會有某些疏漏,請見諒.我假設讀者已經研讀過這本書.它大概講瞭下麵幾個問題,而且都敘述得比較清楚.   我們為什麼不能認識過去?   我們對未來的預測有多差?   我們為什麼...  

評分

本來也不該指望從暢銷書中尋找什麼驚為天人的洞識,我看此書的初衷也無非是學習一本暢銷書該如何來撰寫,以便於日後變成暢銷書作傢,大把賺銀子來買書。如果隻是為瞭這麼一個不太高尚的目的,我想在看完之後還是有所體悟的,此書成功的關鍵就在於1、用一個形象化的手法錶達你抖...  

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在不確定的世界 讀書筆記之黑天鵝效應 題記:08年端午節迴傢的火車上看完瞭中信齣版社的《黑天鵝》,前半段震驚於作者的觀點,後半段則變成瞭霧裏看花,不明所以。迴到上海從淘寶上買到瞭颱灣版的《黑天鵝效...  

評分

這本書提前預見並解釋瞭現在金融風暴。作者實踐他自己的理論,在華爾街發瞭小財,然後定下心來周遊全世界的咖啡館,慢慢寫下這本書。用他自己的話概括,this is a "fuck you" book。 智力上有些衝擊力,因為作者的意圖在於挑戰很多“常識”。核心的綫索是,金融風暴這種”小概...  

類似圖書 點擊查看全場最低價
出版者:Random House
作者:[美] 納西姆•尼古拉斯•塔勒布
出品人:
頁數:366
譯者:
出版時間:2007-4-17
價格:USD 30.00
裝幀:Hardcover
isbn號碼:9781400063512
叢書系列:

圖書標籤: 金融  思維  思想  經濟  社會學  投資  經濟學  finance   


The Black Swan 2025 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載
想要找書就要到 本本書屋
立刻按 ctrl+D收藏本頁
你會得到大驚喜!!

The Black Swan pdf epub mobi 用戶評價

評分

基本觀點激進,沒甚深刻的論證。竟然亞馬遜上也是好評一片,無語瞭

評分

My whole life depends on the fragility of a fucking swan.

評分

2007年就齣版的一本書,為什麼有人說國外的評價很高,但閱讀起來並不那麼賞心悅目?我告訴你就是翻譯問題!強烈建議看原版好麼!英文版看得津津有味,不得不說太棒瞭!薇兒偶然看過中文版幾眼,那翻譯豈是一個爛字瞭得!!書中裏麵充滿瞭作者思辨式的哲學感悟和這種例子。確實是哲學、心理學、統計學和金融學的混閤體。好內容太多,但若一定要用簡潔的語言來總結的話,給我的感覺核心內容就是:“天機難測,淡定應對”。按照古人的說法就是,麵對不確定,要“卒然臨之而不驚,無故加之而不怒”。 人們總是因為未知而恐懼,Taleb說未來無法預測,所有的解釋都是事後諸葛亮,那麼我們該如何自處呢?在我看來,這本書最根本的觀點即是端正心態,把時間和精力花到該花的地方,彆枉費心機去預測未來,尤其是彆把所有的身傢性命押在上麵。

評分

雖然書中的觀點有些還行,但是論述的過程實在是又臭又長又雜亂無序。。。如果寫到50頁到100頁的一個長paper已然綽綽有餘,搞這麼個大部頭實在是。。。作者writing skills不敢恭維。。。

評分

思考和科學最大的對手恐怕就是unknown unknown瞭。也是一個人需要時刻牢記時時反思,並且保持謙卑的原因。Taleb是一個傲慢又謙遜的人,是一個最善良的朋友,又是個自負的渾球。他藐視人,卻對事與真理虔誠。應用層麵上有啓迪之處,更有趣的是Taleb是個哲學思考者。爸爸買瞭漢譯本,似乎譯得不好,流於“暢銷書”譯法瞭。其實詼諧反諷的行文風格也是看點之一。

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