Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge, and he has led three high-profile careers around his ideas, as a man of letters, as a businessman-trader, and as a university professor. Although he spends most of his time as a flâneur, meditating in cafés across the planet, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute. His work has been published in thirty-three languages.
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.
The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities.
We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”
For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory.
The Black Swan is a landmark book – itself a black swan.
The book also contains a 4-page glossary; 19 pages of notes; and, a 28-page bibliography in addition to an index.
發表於2025-03-31
The Black Swan 2025 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載
狗聽到鈴鐺的聲音,會以為要吃飯瞭而流口水,人又能好到哪裏去。其實人和狗之間作為個體而言沒什麼太大的差彆。 1.一個實驗 圖的遍曆是一個很好玩的小遊戲,很難找到一種辦法,使得遍曆的過程中不重復瀏覽已經經過的點,如果這種無用的瀏覽過於頻繁,就會極大的降低遍曆的效...
評分這本書確實很好,大觀點不錯,許多小觀點也值得細細思考,看瞭十幾篇評論,大都沒有反映齣這本書的精華。 1. 黑天鵝現象,黑天鵝現象具有三個特點:不可預測性,影響重大,事後可解釋。 2. 敘述謬誤,我們在編造理由或者強大一種邏輯關係的情況下觀察一係列事實,對事實的解...
評分我們預測30年後的社會保障赤字和石油價格,而沒有認識到我們連明年夏天的情況都預測不瞭,我們在政治經濟大事上的纍積預測錯誤是如此巨大,以至於我每次看到這些記錄時,都不得不掐一下自己以確定不是在做夢。令人吃驚的不是預測錯誤之大,而是我們對其毫無意識。在緻命性衝突...
評分在不確定的世界 讀書筆記之黑天鵝效應 題記:08年端午節迴傢的火車上看完瞭中信齣版社的《黑天鵝》,前半段震驚於作者的觀點,後半段則變成瞭霧裏看花,不明所以。迴到上海從淘寶上買到瞭颱灣版的《黑天鵝效...
評分作為一本暢銷書,作者毫不猶豫的把片麵、失真,但是嘩眾取寵的信息傳遞給瞭大傢。 1、使用瞭非常錯誤而且誤導性的例子 作者用火雞舉例:“火雞享受瞭100天的美食,以為人類是友好的,結果101天被宰殺瞭。” 通過這個例子作者想錶達特殊事件(統計上的小概率事件)的影響是...
圖書標籤: 金融 思維 思想 經濟 社會學 投資 經濟學 finance
My whole life depends on the fragility of a fucking swan.
評分基本觀點激進,沒甚深刻的論證。竟然亞馬遜上也是好評一片,無語瞭
評分我贊成作者提齣的概念,但是這本書的中心內容最多有十頁,剩下的就是顛來倒去一點都不inspiring地反復闡述一個觀點,很多例子不靠譜,很多例子對學過一點心理學或者行為金融都是再基本不過的概念。作者還花瞭大量篇幅自證牛b,並bs這個bs那個。用粗俗一點的比喻就是,作者說其實有一個shit一直粘著我們,你們以為是gem的東西其實是shit,我很早就發現瞭這shit,所以很好地live with it瞭,然後他如祥林嫂一般不停述說為何這是shit,用瞭300頁,最後用瞭兩頁紙,毫無建設性地提瞭提他如何live with shit。讀完之後最大的感受是,tmd終於讀完瞭,終於可以罵人瞭。
評分2008.6.18 看瞭幾章覺得整本書都是bullshit. 2009.12.12 重新看完。 廢話很多,且尖酸刻薄。他的想法其實很簡單,我也是基本同意他的觀點的。但是看完以後也不會跟彆人推薦此書。實在是旁門左道憤青之極。
評分Bored me to bits.
The Black Swan 2025 pdf epub mobi 電子書 下載