Judea Pearl is a professor of computer science at UCLA and winner of the 2011 Turing Award and the author of three classic technical books on causality. He lives in Los Angeles, California.
Dana Mackenzie is an award-winning science writer and the author of The Big Splat, or How Our Moon Came to Be. He lives in Santa Cruz, California.
发表于2024-11-21
The Book of Why 2024 pdf epub mobi 电子书
The ladder of causation Association Predictions based on passive observations Intervention Involving not just seeing but changing what is Counterfactuals Not only experiments, but also need the model of the underlying causal process--"theory" or "a law of n...
评分2016年,在大数据的帮助下,人工智能(AI)围棋软件AlphaGo在系列赛中以4:1战胜了世界围棋顶尖高手李世石,震惊了全人类。 当时网络上有人戏谑道:“人工智能赢了不可怕,至少说明它还不懂得韬光隐晦,如果它假装输给人类,那才更加可怕。”这句看似戏言的话,却暗藏了人工智能...
评分1.作者朱迪亚·珀尔,是加州大学落砂机分校的计算机科学教授,计算机最高奖项图灵奖的获得者,被称为贝叶斯网络之父。作为科学家写的科学著作,这本书需要一定的先验知识才能阅读下去,起码读者应该对概率论有基本的了解。不过,虽然有一定的阅读难度,但能把人类关于因果关系...
评分 评分“20世纪50年代末60年代初,统计学家和医生就整个20世纪最引人注目的一个医学问题产生了意见冲突:吸烟会导致肺癌吗?在这场辩论过去了半个世纪之后的现在,我们认为答案是理所当然的。但在当时,这个问题完全处于迷雾之中。” 01 — 书比较厚,正文346页,注释26页。内容也相对硬核...
图书标签: 人工智能 统计学 因果論 Causality 计算机 Statistics AI 思维
A Turing Award-winning computer scientist and statistician shows how understanding causality has revolutionized science and will revolutionize artificial intelligence
"Correlation is not causation." This mantra, chanted by scientists for more than a century, has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality--the study of cause and effect--on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl's work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human thought and key to artificial intelligence. Anyone who wants to understand either needs The Book of Why.
科学法是贝叶斯定理的一次应用。因果图形式化因果结构,do算子对有向无环图中指向X的有向边全部切断。由于变量不能全部观测,用前门准则来控制无法观察到的混杂因素,与RCT目标一致;若变量集合Z相对于(X,Y)满足后门准则,则X到Y因果可识别。感觉这些都是对相关性不能解决以及解决起来复杂的问题透明优化。反事实算法则扩宽数据解答问题的范围,NIE形式化间接影响。结构因果模型很大的一个优点就是对于线性非线性函数、离散或连续变量都有效。作者太卖关子,前几章讲统计学史,旧故事很多,7-9章是干货。思路是经典宏观实践的,因果哲学讲得很浅。但是应用领域极为广泛,毕竟是对相关性大改良,文科也能用呐。不知道因果模型处理相互干涉和叠加态什么的会怎么样。可能要读Causality一书才能深刻了解本书数学化的严格证明。
评分非常棒的一本计算机科学的科普书,可读性强,并且,作者也有哲学的深度。没有给5星是因为对科普的兴趣没有对经济学那么感兴趣
评分看的很过瘾,对频率学派和贝叶斯学派都有反思
评分在过去不到三十年的时间里,人们对因果关系这个问题的理解取得了突破式的进步,可以说是发生了一场“因果革命”。珀尔这本书,就是向“聪明的外行”介绍这个新学说。
评分终于!看完了!醍醐灌顶!太精彩!基本改变了对统计的认知!9.6-9.24,amazing的18天阅读体验。
The Book of Why 2024 pdf epub mobi 电子书