Judea Pearl is a professor of computer science at UCLA and winner of the 2011 Turing Award and the author of three classic technical books on causality. He lives in Los Angeles, California.
Dana Mackenzie is an award-winning science writer and the author of The Big Splat, or How Our Moon Came to Be. He lives in Santa Cruz, California.
发表于2025-03-12
The Book of Why 2025 pdf epub mobi 电子书
1.作者朱迪亚·珀尔,是加州大学落砂机分校的计算机科学教授,计算机最高奖项图灵奖的获得者,被称为贝叶斯网络之父。作为科学家写的科学著作,这本书需要一定的先验知识才能阅读下去,起码读者应该对概率论有基本的了解。不过,虽然有一定的阅读难度,但能把人类关于因果关系...
评分这些人发明了如此简单而常用的东西,以至所有人都忘了这些东西也需要人发明出来。 非常匆忙地读了一遍之后,脑子里第一时间浮现的是小说《好兆头》里的这句话,它基本上是我对这本书印象的完美概括。 经济学专业的学生,如果选过一些 policy evaluation 和 causal inference 方...
图书标签: 统计 逻辑 方法论 计算机 因果 哲学 科普 AI
A Turing Award-winning computer scientist and statistician shows how understanding causality has revolutionized science and will revolutionize artificial intelligence
“Correlation is not causation.” This mantra, chanted by scientists for more than a century, has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality–the study of cause and effect–on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl’s work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human thought and key to artificial intelligence. Anyone who wants to understand either needs The Book of Why.
总算有本Judea Pearl的书是我能看懂的了,虽然是科普……读下来的感觉,Pearl的工作将人类直觉化的因果推理能力用数学形式表达了出来,使causal effect成为可以估计的变量。但因果模型如何提出,如何验证,似乎并没有涉及太多。如果强人工智能需要学会因果推理,提出模型应该比估算模型要难得多,也重要得多。
评分Heckman, Rubin, Pearl的爱恨情仇啊。From Gelman, Pearl’s obnoxiousness obstructs the disemmination of his ideas. And works by economists are swept under the rug. 画图容易,但用Rubin亦可。同样的问题仍是我们有哪些x该放进来?然后如何从ate到更有意义的参数是根本的识别问题也是modelling problem,这个用图难以。另外经济学家最大的一个贡献(语出Hausman)就是sem;Pearl似乎不能领会我们为何要用sem。端看pearl能不能用dag来写一个市场均衡模型. Imbens最近写了一篇review说经济学家们不用学图论 用处不多
评分很不错,很受启发。其实语言限制思维这个简单的事情也很有意思。说个身边的例子,很多人说深圳要取代香港,却不知道深圳何以成为深圳。当年邓公画了五个特区,只有一个成功了。稍微动脑子问一下why就知道深圳成功的唯一原因就是香港。去年香港打了个喷嚏,深圳就半瘫痪了。这两个不可分割的玩意,竟然有一方把另一方当作对手。。。
评分Not my book though
评分很不错,很受启发。其实语言限制思维这个简单的事情也很有意思。说个身边的例子,很多人说深圳要取代香港,却不知道深圳何以成为深圳。当年邓公画了五个特区,只有一个成功了。稍微动脑子问一下why就知道深圳成功的唯一原因就是香港。去年香港打了个喷嚏,深圳就半瘫痪了。这两个不可分割的玩意,竟然有一方把另一方当作对手。。。
The Book of Why 2025 pdf epub mobi 电子书