Annie Duke (born Anne LaBarr Lederer) is a professional poker player and author who won a bracelet in the 2004 World Series of Poker $2,000 Omaha Hi-Low Split-8 or Better Event and was the winner of the 2004 World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions, where she earned the Winner-Take-All prize of $2,000,000.
发表于2024-05-11
Thinking in Bets 2024 pdf epub mobi 电子书
一 我们常常需要在不确定的情况下做出决定。Annie Duke有感而发,因为她真的是个赌徒——赌博这项活动显然有很坏的名声,以至于我们只有这个贬义的“赌徒”。在扑克牌桌上,你常常需要赌一把“手气”,看看你的赌运。我们凭直觉就知道这其中有很大的运气成分。你可以和赌神赌一...
评分 评分 评分 评分图书标签: 决策 思维 心理学 英文原版 不确定性 认知精进 扑克 成长
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?
Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?
Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.
By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.
说的很有道理,而且也给了操作办法,好书!
评分思想资源上溯到密尔的《论自由》,也综合了近年来行为经济学的研究成果。因为不确定,因为能力和运气交织影响结果,所以得用打牌下赌注的概率思维来考虑如何决策。既要从积极的结果倒推需要采取的步骤,也要预见到光明前途中的困难,做好应对准备。感觉跟中国谚语中的一些人生智慧不谋而合。
评分作者主要的观点就是:不要对过去做出的选择有所遗憾,因为糟糕的结果,需要不断地前行。里面用到了很多Thinking Fast and Slow里的心理概念。
评分作者主要的观点就是:不要对过去做出的选择有所遗憾,因为糟糕的结果,需要不断地前行。里面用到了很多Thinking Fast and Slow里的心理概念。
评分via 西昂翔
Thinking in Bets 2024 pdf epub mobi 电子书