Thinking in Bets 2024 pdf epub mobi 电子书

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Thinking in Bets 2024 pdf epub mobi 电子书著者简介

Annie Duke (born Anne LaBarr Lederer) is a professional poker player and author who won a bracelet in the 2004 World Series of Poker $2,000 Omaha Hi-Low Split-8 or Better Event and was the winner of the 2004 World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions, where she earned the Winner-Take-All prize of $2,000,000.

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发表于2024-11-21

Thinking in Bets 2024 pdf epub mobi 电子书

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Thinking in Bets 电子书读后感

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一我们常常需要在不确定的情况下做出决定。Annie Duke有感而发，因为她真的是个赌徒——赌博这项活动显然有很坏的名声，以至于我们只有这个贬义的“赌徒”。在扑克牌桌上，你常常需要赌一把“手气”，看看你的赌运。我们凭直觉就知道这其中有很大的运气成分。你可以和赌神赌一...

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出版者:Portfolio

作者:Annie Duke

出品人:

页数:256

译者:

出版时间:2018-2-6

价格:USD 26.00

装帧:Hardcover

isbn号码:9780735216358

丛书系列:

图书标签: 决策思维心理学英文原版不确定性认知精进扑克成长

Thinking in Bets 2024 pdf epub mobi 电子书图书描述

In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?

Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?

Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.

By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

Thinking in Bets 2024 pdf epub mobi 电子书

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Thinking in Bets 2024 pdf epub mobi 用户评价

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将很多uncertainty的特性与决策关系，梳理得异常清晰，极富启发性。

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Think of choices as bets - to seek truth, rather than self-serving. Decision-examining group: CUDOS= communism, universalism, disinterestedness, organized skepticism. Avoid temporal-discount by imagining the future (10-10-10 rule)

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说的很有道理，而且也给了操作办法，好书！

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跟着万老师读书第一本。本来想着一个星期就读完的，无奈兴趣太多，期间还看了三本小说。不过总算今天看完了，花了三个星期。鼓励下自己，继续加油。

Thinking in Bets 2024 pdf epub mobi 电子书